When the deal took place it was Talbot, not the light hitting shortstop Zobrist, who was the more prized ‘get’.  Here are Talbot’s FIPs for each season in the Rays‘ minor league system:

2006(AA):  2.81

2007(AAA): 4.00

2008(AAA): 3.03

2009(AAA): 3.55

The numbers are pretty good, but in an organization that was/is as pitching rich as the Rays there was never room for him.  He wasn’t polished enough to earn a shot with the 2007 rotation, 2008 saw the additions of Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine to fill two vacancies, while David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis filled the voids in 2009.  The 2010 rotation looks to be the Rays strongest yet.  In another organization with less pitching depth Talbot would surely have been given a substantial shot in the Major Leagues by now.

With Spring Training approaching faster and faster the annual rosterbation games that we all play begin to creep up. What free agents are signed? Who gets traded? Who makes it? Who doesn’t?  In the case of Mitch Talbot, unfortunately the answer appears to be the latter.  Talbot is out of options, and will need to make the 25 man roster to avoid being put on waivers, where he would be plucked off rather quickly.  He’s not making the rotation, so we can skip that and move to the bullpen.  Since it appears the Rays will go with a four man bench that leaves them with a seven man bullpen.  Let’s take a look at the candidates:

Howell
Wheeler
Cormier
Balfour
Sonny
Chavez
Thayer
Talbot
LOOGY

The first four are virtual locks.  Cormier is arb1 eligible, so theoretically they could non-tender him, but he’s not likely to get a big raise in arb anyway (h/t Tommy).  There are some reverse split guys in that grouping, but Joe Maddon enjoys his LOOGYs, making R.J. Swindle or Brian Shouse (should he accept arbitration) prime candidates for that role.  After that you have five pitchers for two spots, and with Sonnanstine, Chavez, and Thayer having options remaining it makes Talbot look that much less attractive.  That’s without bringing into the equation the high likelihood of the Rays signing one or more free agent relievers, which they’re wont to do.

If you add all of that up, barring some major injury, the forecast for Talbot being in a Rays’ uniform next season looks grim at best.  The team was in a similar situation last off-season with Jason Hammel, and ended up trading him to Colorado where he turned in a pretty decent season.  I would imagine Talbot will have the same fate.  Where Talbot and Hammel differ is their MLB experience.  At the time Hammel was dealt he had served over a year at the Major League level; Talbot has about ten innings.  Even though they’ll have no leverage, the front office will not let an asset walk away for nothing.  They don’t have that luxury.  They’ll move him for a low to mid-level prospect who will provide more organizational depth.  Then Talbot will merely be an answer to a trivia question, the “other guy” in the Aubrey Huff trade, a feint memory to most Rays fans.  I always liked Talbot and believe he still has a future in the league somewhere; that somewhere just doesn’t appear to be here.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Forbes lists the Rays as the 26th most valuable franchise in baseball at $320 million. That is a 10% increase over last year. Not a bad return on investment in this economy. Only the Yankees (15%) and Mets (11%) had a higher increase. Of course, 10% of not very much is still not very much. [Forbes]
• The Rays were one of several teams on hand to watch Kelvim Escobar throw yesterday. Reports say that Escobar’s fastball was in the low 90s. He has made only one appearance since 2007. [Twitter]
• Kelvim Escobar listed the Mets and Rays as the two teams that appear to be the most interested and commented on both. [St. Pete Times]
• Here is a primer on where the Rays would pick in the supplemental round depending on which free agents sign with other teams. The Rays already have one supplemental pick (Gregg Zaun) and could get a second if Brian Shouse signs with another team. [Capitol Avenue Club]
• Roger Mooney has all of the Rays minor league coaching staffs which were announced yesterday. [Rays Report]
• Steve Henderson has been hired by the Phillies. [The Heater]

If you want a bit of a blueprint on how teams normally handle that many picks that early, look at Seattle last year. They had five in the top 100, including three of the top 35, and chose the following players:

(2) Dustin Ackley – Best player available

(27) Nick Franklin – Good upside, high school shortstop

(33) Steven Baron – Signability pick

(51) Richard Poythress -  Some upside, college bat

(82) Kyle Seager – College bat

With a (presumably) smaller budget and more picks, odds are you’ll see an additional signability pick. Although, the lower draft position could balance that some and the Rays have the ability to take a potentially risky sign with any of their picks, minus the two given for failing to sign LeVon Washington and Kenny Diekroeger. Not that I’m encouraging they go into the draft with the mindset to blatantly ‘pass’ on a selection, but the option is there. That could lead to a ridiculous 2011 draft if the Rays claim stake to two or more Type-A free agents.*

For most, the key question is simple. How many of these players should we expect to reach the majors?

I took each draft class from 2000-04 and tallied the amount of players in the top 45 who reached the majors, and then the amount in the next 45. What I found are pretty consistent rates in both rounds. In the first 45, about 60% of players will reach the majors. In the second 45, that rate is closer to 48%.Of course, that first 45 includes the top few picks which you would think have the highest likelihood of reaching the majors – or should, in theory – so in actuality you can bump the 60% down slightly if you so wish.

From there, it’s simple math. If each player in the top 45 has a 60% chance at reaching the majors, and the Rays have three picks in the top 45, that gives them something like a 21.6% chance of landing three players who will someday reach the majors, a 36% chance at landing two, and a 6.4% chance of landing none at all. If Brian Shouse signs somewhere and they get four picks, then those odds of landing a Major Leaguer increase further; 13% of landing four and 2.6% of landing none.

Now, again, those odds are somewhat inflated because of the very top picks. The chance of landing four Major Leaguers when your first pick comes in the middle of round one is lower than 13%.

Those next three picks will come in the second 45, and if each has what amounts to a flip of a coin’s chance of reaching the Majors, then the odds of landing no Major Leaguers is 14%, landing two is 23%, and landing three is 11%.  All told, with six picks, the Rays have about a 2% chance of landing six Major Leaguers and less than 1% chance of landing none.

(Note: I know someone will raise the point that the exact percentage of landing none is actually higher than that because the Rays will essentially take a talent or two who are overdrafts. I would offer that the dataset already includes guys who were overdrafts. It’s not like taking someone who will sign for under slot in the early rounds is new.)

*If Crawford, Soriano, and Pena each lock up Type-A, then sign elsewhere, that’s six draft picks. Three of those should be first rounders. That’s four first round picks. If the Rays are ever, ever signing a Type-A free agent again, then it’ll happen next winter. The budget will be cleared and the draft picks will mean little.

With two extra picks for not signing their first- and second-round selections in this year’s draft and compensatory picks for free agents Gregg Zaun and Shouse, the Rays will have six of the first 75 or so selections in the upcoming draft.

The next important dates for the Rays are December 10 and 12.

December 10 is the Rule 5 draft. Aneury Rodriguez is a candidate to be selected off the Rays roster by another team.

December 12 is the deadline to tender contracts to all players with less than six years of service time, including those that are arbitration eligible. Two of these players, Gabe Gross and Dioner Navarro are candidates to be non-tendered.

So don’t be surprised if the next Rays to be traded are Gross and Navi. The Rays won’t receive much in return (a mid-level prospect?), but it is better than just letting them walk as free agents.

Either way, we have probably seen the last of the Gabe-of-the-Day and The Fat Catcher eras.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• From Marc Topkin: “Executive VP Andrew Friedman said there’s no thought right now about trading All-Star LF Carl Crawford and the that the mutual goal remains a long-term deal.”…well, that was carefully worded. The right offer comes along and the Rays will start thinking about it real quick. [The Heater]
• In the same piece, Marc Topkin reports that Fernando Perez is “a little behind” in his rehab from shoulder surgery but should be ready for opening day. [The Heater]
• Around the Majors takes an in-depth look at what the Kelly Shoppach trade means for the Rays, Gregg Zaun and Dioner Navarro. [Around the Majors]
• The Hardball Times has a list of several teams that could be interested in Dioner Navarro. [The Hardball Times]
• Would the Mets be interested in Dioner Navarro? [Mets Today]
• We’re not sure we would call Kelly Shoppach a “huge upgrade,” but ok. [Center of the Sports Universe]
• Fangraphs tries to figure out if Jason Bartlett’s 2009 season was a fluke. [Fangraphs]

By doing so, the Rays would get draft-pick compensation (between rounds 1 and 2) if they sign elsewhere, but also run the risk of the player accepting arbitration (by their Dec. 7 deadline) and thus being signed, with their salary to be determined by arbitration (and unlikely to go down).

The Rays have already declined $2-million options on Shouse and Zaun; Springer is said to be considering retirement.

The deadline also clarifies the market for any potential Type A free agents the Rays have interest in as they’ll know if they would lose their first-round pick for signing one.

The other non-ranked free agents are also covered by this deadline (RHP Chad Bradford, RHP Jason Isringhausen, RHP Troy Percival), but with no compensation attached to them there is little reason for a team to offer arbitration (in which players usually get raises) rather than negotiate on the open market.

For what it’s worth, here’s a link to a list of predictions by Tim Dierkes of the always interesting mlbtraderumors.com site. He expects the Rays to pass on all three of their potential free agents.

These arbitration decisions are unrelated to the ones teams have to make by Dec. 12 for the players that remain under their control. The Rays at the moment have 10 eligible players but seem unlikely to tender contracts to all: RHP Grant Balfour, SS Jason Bartlett, RHP Jeff Bennett, LHP Randy Choate, RHP Lance Cormier, RHP Matt Garza, OF Gabe Gross, LHP J.P. Howell, C Dioner Navarro, CF B.J. Upton.

Also, Rays executive VP Andrew Friedman will hold his pre-winter meetings media session on Tuesday, so check back late afternoon for updates.

• Joe Smith at the St. Pete Times tells us the Rays will be shopping for catching and bullpen help at the winter meetings. If I could give Friedman Claus a wish list, it would include Taylor Teagarden, Mike Wuertz, Matt Thornton, or John Smoltz.
• Smith also mentions teams are calling about  B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford.  I think one could be dealt in the next 8 months, but no way both get dealt.  Upton is still very young, very cheap, and under Rays control for three more seasons.
• With all of the talk about free agency, we rarely hear about the backstory from the player’s side. Ivy league graduate and former player Doug Glanville changes that for us in a nice op-ed in the New York Times. Keep this in mind as the Rays work with free agents this off-season.
• Dan Turkenkopf at The Hardball Times has posted the homerun to flyball rates for all 30 major league parks – both the 2009 score as well as the score over the last four seasons.  A score of 100 is average; below 100 favors pitchers while above favors hitters.  Tropicana Field was favorable for the hitters in 2009 as well as over the four year period from 2006 to 2009.
• The Rays may be interested in Juan Rivera- hopefully not to play the outfield. I still can’t get over his effort on that flyball in the Red Sox series this past October.
• If you are on Twitter and need some Rays people to follow, here is a nice list.

Here’s the thing about the minor league free agents list. You can spend literally an hour just checking out every name and tracing the prospect genesis of the ones you recognize and it never gets old. There’s also a cognitive filter where any semi-interesting player gains a mention on the “Ooh I want!” list. Once promised pitchers will undoubtedly figure things out and hitters will either engage a girl with the last name Luck or invoke on a journey that begins with this:

Scene: Back alley of an abandoned warehouse

A man with a trench coat and extended black case raps on the door amidst the raspy coughing of a stray cat encountering a fur ball.

The warehouse door swings open with an abrupt thud and quickly the man scatters inside. Indoors, the case is handed to the new man while a stack of dollars is bagged and placed within the trench coat. The mystery man places the case on the table and undoes the latches, opening the case and removing shackles before revealing a fine wooden black baseball bat with an orange 25 engraved into the barrel.

Lifting the bat into the moonlight the new owner gasped ‘Gee willickers!” as he took an effortless practice cut or three and could feel the power surge through his veins. The trench coat man begins to make his way out of the door once again but stops at the door to administer a warning, “Look kid, this is the last one, make it last, okay?”

“Yes…yes sir. Good golly thanks a ton mister.”

With that in mind, I’ve compiled a list of mildly intriguing relievers. The idea here is not to land a closer in his prime, but instead find an arm or two who can contribute when injuries and ineffective pitching hit the Rays pen. For this exercise I’m working with the assumption that these guys would take the standard minor league deal and would not require a 40 man roster spot.

Winston Abreu

Striking out nearly a third of the total batters you face indicates you do something well. Holding such a proportion when the sample size is closing in on 1,250 is remarkable. He throws hard. He seems to have a decent secondary offering.  In 44 Major League innings Abreu’s contact rate is superior (72.1%) to league average (around 81%) and his issues are rooted almost entirely in home runs allowed. That issue does not show up throughout his minor league career and 44 innings is a tiny sample size stretched over four seasons. He received some shine last season to the tune of 128 pitches and was horrendous but for someone who took fewer dollars to return to the system after being designated for assignment by Cleveland, you have to think he’s a lock for next year. A spring training invite is hardly a pyrrhic victory for the Rays.

Wes Littleton

The meaningful statistics on Littleton: 102 innings pitched, 59.6% grounders, a strikeout rate essentially equal to the career of Lance Cormier, and a better walk rate to boot. Split last year between Boston and Milwaukee and saw wacky walk rates throughout. Whether that was due to an injury is unbeknown to me. Was drafted by Texas in 2003 which, I believe, overlaps with Matt Arnold’s time in Arlington. Sits in the upper-80s and uses a slider and change effectively against both hands. Worst case: a potential replacement for Chad Bradford‘s groundhog-thumping ways. Ehren Wasserman, Shane Loux, and Ryan Speier would also make sense in that role.

Scott Patterson

The second of the chichi minor league lifers whom fan infatuation arises naturally like grass. Pitching baseballs is like everything else in the sense that entertainment and enjoyment derived is quickly decreased once money becomes involved.  Whether it’s writing, telling jokes, or playing baseball, doing it just to make the next rent or car payment takes its toll. Back to Patterson. In the last few seasons he’s split time between New York, San Diego, and Oakland.  He holds a 10 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in Triple-A through nearly 115 innings and yet has a handful of appearances in the majors to show for it. His walk rate went berserk this year and his fastball doesn’t make love to the radar guns.

Marcus McBeth

A former outfield prospect with the Athletics, McBeth spent last season with the Red Sox and saw timei n the majors with the Reds in 2007. He’s a fastball pitcher with a decent fastball and supposedly good change. His whiff rates have been impressive throughout the minors.

Andrew Brown

Spent nearly 90 innings in the majors and wasn’t poor but missed all of 2009 with a slight labrum tear and rotator cuff damage. Status for 2010: beats me.

That’s enough from me, which names pique your interest?

Carl Crawford is on the list as a Type B free agent. This may seem like a moot point now that the Rays have picked up his 2010 option, but it could have a huge impact on what the team chooses to do with CC moving forward.

While the Rays will certainly listen to offers for Crawford this winter, most assume CC will be back with the Rays in 2010. Then the Rays will wait until the trade deadline to decide whether to trade Crawford or let him walk in the off-season, depending on whether the Rays are still in contention in July.

This thinking was based on the assumption that if the Rays lost Crawford to free agency, they would receive two first-round compensatory picks. If Crawford is a Type B free agent, the Rays may be more inclined to trade him this winter or prior to the trade deadline, no matter where the team is in the standings.

So, how will we know what Crawford’s free agent status will be after the 2010 season? We don’t have the Elias formula (nobody has cracked it), but we can look at Crawford’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from the past two years.

In 2008, Crawford posted a 2.7 WAR and in 2009 that number was 5.5.

The good news is, when the Elias rankings are calculated next season, they will include Crawford’s strong 2009 campaign. The bad news is, if he posts another season like 2008, he will be Type B status again.

So can the Rays take a chance that Crawford will jump up to Type A status next season? At the very least, Crawford’s Elias ranking this season will be a wake-up call for the Rays and increases the chance that he is traded between now and next year’s trade deadline.

*If a team loses a Type A player in free agency they will receive the other team’s first-round pick the next year and a compensatory pick between the first and second-round. If a team loses a Type B player in free agency they will only receive the compensatory pick. If a team has one of the top 15 picks in the draft, it is protected. So if a team with a top-15 pick signs a Type A free agent, they would not lose their first-round selection. Rather, they would have to surrender their second-round selection. Also, things get a bit more complicated if a team signs more than one Type A free agent.

Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse have options that could be picked up, but only Zaun has a legitimate chance at that; Shouse is easily replaceable by Randy Choate.  The decision on those options, as well as the likely news on Crawford’s should come sometime this week.