After a full day of speculation, we finally reach resolution. Jon Paul Morosi is reporting the Rays will trade Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano. In effect, the Rays will deal the ghost of Akinori Iwamura for Rafael Soriano, barring anything else being added to the deal.

As for Chavez, well, we barely knew ‘ya Jesse. Take care in Atlanta. He’s a decent get for Atlanta considering they held little leverage in this situation. Almost the opposite of the original deal that landed Chavez with the Rays.

Now, for Soriano.

Let’s start from the top.

Soriano will turn 30-years-old on December 19^th. He signed with the Seattle Mariners as an amateur free agent in 1996 and made his Major League debut on May 10^th, 2002. On December 7^th, 2006, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Horacio Ramirez. For his career, he’s pitched 332.2 innings, struck out 365, and walked 104. All told, he has a career FIP of 3.31 and xFIP of 3.65. Soriano was eligible for free agency this season, however he decided to accept arbitration rather than testing the market, and gave the Braves permission to trade him immediately afterwards.

He throws your garden variety power closer pitches. A 92-94 MPH fastball that reaches 96, a slider that sits in the low-80s, and — in the rarest of instances – a low-80s change-up. His fastball produced a 12.1% whiff rate last season while his slider sat at 16.4%. For comparison, J.P. Howell‘s curve generated 19.5% empty swings, which is to say Soriano’s stuff is filthy. Soriano is a career fly ball pitcher, which isn’t desirable, but when you pack the heat he does, pitching up in the zone without getting slammed is an acceptable way of life.

Soriano isn’t without his questions either. He has missed most of three seasons since 2004, including 2008 most recently with a mixture of injuries – some shoulder soreness, a groin strain, and a side strain. He’s also dealt with a concussion, oblique strains, and Tommy John surgery.  The exact costs in which he’ll require are unknown as well. Yes, there’s a strong chance he will repeat as a Type-A free agent next off-season, but as the Braves found out this year, that isn’t always a guarantee; especially with non-elite free agent relievers.

So how good is he?

Over his last three healthy seasons (2009-6, minus 2008) he’s posted FIP of 2.54, 4.17, and 3.43. Obviously a repeat of 2009 would be fantastic, but also unlikely. Of those, 3.43 is almost exactly in the middle and probably what most people will go off.  If you apply the 5-3-2 weighing to his last three healthy seasons FIP you get an average of 3.2. Add in another 2 for league average adjustment – note: this is seriously just a league average reliever, so this projection is actually a bit more conservative than it could be – and you get 3.39 – or basically J.P. Howell’s 2008, which is great.

League adjustment is going to be something I feel we’ll discuss a lot. Scouts think he has the stuff to succeed in baseball’s toughest division – and I would agree – and based on his previous AL seasons in the bullpen it would seem like he can step right in and post a sub-4 FIP, but those seasons were a long time ago and while they aren’t 100% irrelevant, they shouldn’t be weighed nowhere near as much as the most recent seasons. Below is a list of 2009 relievers who came from the National League and how they fared in at least 40 innings worth. This is FIP and xFIP so as to neutralize whether it was luck or worse pitching:

That’s a small sample size, but the average shift in FIP is about 1.  Soriano is a better pitcher than quite a few of those on the list, so let’s say he only feels a little bit of the change and posts a FIP around 3.7. That would be Howell’s 2009 season all over again, which is good. If Soriano pitched like that on last year’s club, he would’ve given the Rays three relief pitchers under 3.8 FIP. The Yankees had four; the Red Sox two; and the Blue Jays three.

How’s this for coincidence. The Rays have Howell, who’s entry we’ve taken to calling chill time. Well, as best as I can find, Soriano enters to a song called Fuego – Spanish for fire.

@Ken_Rosenthal: Rays, Astros the teams trying to trade for R. Soriano.

Soriano was a Type-A before accepting arbitration. That would be great and all, but the Braves had already signed a Type-A reliever of their own (Billy Wagner) and added a new set-up man (Takashi Saito). Rather than paying the bills on three expensive relievers, and since they cannot trade Saito already, the Braves are looking to move Soriano instead as the rules permit such movement after an acceptance of arbitration.

Soriano is good. Very, very good. His career xFIP is 3.65 while his career FIP is even lower at 3.31. He strands runners at an above average rate, and avoids bats very well (74.3% contact for his career). Soriano is a flyball pitcher and he will cost some change next year. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Rays can sweeten the pot by giving Atlanta enough so as to receive some financial help in return.

Olney with this:

ATL asking for solid recent for Rafael Soriano, in addition to having other team pick up $. Unclear whether sometimes bites on asking price.

I’m assuming “sometimes” is suppose to be “someone”.

Pre-Trade:

The Rays selected Brian Boehringer, a 28-year-old right-handed reliever from the Yankees in the 1997 expansion draft. 1997 was his best year with the Yanks compiling a FIP of 3.98 with a career best K/9 of 9.9 in 48 IP.

Andy Sheets, a 26-year-old utility-man was also selected by the Rays in the expansion draft away from the Mariners with whom he posted a 2 season slash of .216/.279/.332. He was packaged immediately with Boehringer and shipped to the Padres for catcher John Flaherty.

John “Flash” Flaherty was a 30 year old catcher who had posted a 2 year slash with the Padres of .284/.324/.411.

Post Trade:

John Flaherty would play through the 2002 season with the Rays before being granted free agency. His line over that time was .252/.289/.365. He would play 3 seasons for the Yankees before retiring and joining the YES network to do analyst work for the Yanks.

Brian Boehringer spent 3 years with the Padres before becoming a free agent. During that span he posted an ERA of 3.91 with a FIP somewhere north of 5. He had a few other uninteresting stints in the bigs but was out of MLB for good by 2004. Currently he is serving as Jack Wilson‘s personal infield instructor.

Andy Sheets would play 1 season with the Padres upping his slash to .242/.318/.407. The Padres would then pair him with minor leaguer Gus Kennedy, who never made it past A+ ball to the Angels for infielder Phil Nevin and minor leaguer Keith Volkman.

Volkman never made it to AA, but Nevin played into 2005 with the Padres with an impressive slash of .288/.359/.503 during those 7 seasons. He was eventually traded to Texas for Chan Ho Park and cash.

Park made 21 starts for San Diego in 2006 and was largely ineffective going 7-7 with a 4.82 FIP.  He was granted free agency following the season ending the Padres John Flaherty string.

The biggest surprise was the absence of Aneury Rodriguez, the pitcher the Rays received from the Rockies for Jason Hammel. While Torres is more valuable than Rodriguez, we are surprised that the Rays are willing to risk losing Rodriguez in the Rule 5 Draft, when they have a seemingly expendable player on the 40-man roster like Elliot Johnson.

Rodriguez struggled in the first-half of the season and finished with a 4.50 ERA (4.69 FIP) in 142 innings with 111 strikeouts and 59 walks at double-A Montgomery. But he was much stronger in the second-half as he seemed to find a rhythm, regularly pitching into the 7th inning and allowing 2 runs or fewer.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Marc Topkin has read the new book by Vince Naimoli we discussed a few months ago, and breaks down a few of the more controversial sections. As we write this we can’t recall the name of the book, but we are pretty sure it should be titled, “I am bitter as hell and about 10 people will know it!” [St. Pete Times]
• We dropped this on Twitter a couple of days ago, but in case you are one of the silly people not following us on Twitter, a few more big names from the Rays minor league system have been granted free agency, including Winston Abreu, Calvin Medlock (came over in the Jorge Cantu trade), Carlos Hernandez, Jon Weber and Jason Perry.
• The City of St. Pete has responded to ABC’s recommendation for a new baseball stadium for the Rays. Lines are starting to be drawn in the sand, and as we have said previously, this is going to get ugly before it gets better. [St. Pete Times]
• Bob Nightengale of USA Today said yesterday that the Rays have become the “clear-cut favorite” to land Milton Bradley. It is unclear if he is basing that on inside information or if he is just speculating based on the news reports that are already out there. [Twitter]
• The Rays Party takes a look at Grant Balfour’s fastball. [The Rays Party]

This is it, for those of you that have been patiently waiting to see the best Rays pitching performances of the year.  If you read through the last installment, then you noticed that I have moved to a scoring system.  Let’s take a look at the standings:

Shields 104 Niemann 61 Price 60 Kazmir 40 Garza 29 Davis 17 Sonnanstine 14

James Shields has been running away with it based on the quantity as well as the quality of his starts.  Jeff Niemann has also had a lot of starts in here, but less so of the top-tier quality.  Wade Davis has had a few appearances, which is surprising since he only had a few total on the year, but when we think of great performances we think of Matt Garza.  So far he has had three starts looked at (7, 28, & 29).  I found this somewhat surprising, because as some of you know I track game-to-game FIP and wOBA for pitchers to reach an estimate of deserved wins.  Matty tore up the wOBA wins approaching 20 and was a tick behind Shields on the FIP-side.  Well, if you’re a fan of The Crane, then you won’t be disappointed as he comes on like gangbusters here.  First up however…

5) James Shields at New York Mets on June 20  Box Highlights Pitch F/x

This was before the Mets became a full blown AAAA team so you can’t chalk it up totally to that, but only allowing three guys on the bases is quite the achievement over 7 full innings.  Broken record alert, but when James keeps the ball in the yard, he is as close to an ace as we’ve ever had.  He needed to be on that day as he was facing Johan Santana, whom is a certified ace and bound to give the Rays fits being weird-handed with a great change.  After giving up the run in the 2nd he would mow down 16 of the next 17 before being yanked for Mountain Man Dan Wheeler to start the 8th.  I like that Shieldsy only threw 5 cutters on the night, only one of which was in the zone:

via brooksbaseball.net

He was basically 2:1 on the fastball:changeup and closer to 3:1 on the fastball:curve/slider.  This is what I like to see out of James.  He was able to work ahead throwing 66% strikes on the night with his change leading the way in whiffs.  See the highlights link above for grown-men looking like little leaguers.

4) Wade Davis at Baltimore on September 17  Box Highlights Pitch F/x

Wade was told that if he threw strikes that it would come, so as he eased their pain, he was able to go the distance.  He didn’t have a catch with his ghost of a father after the game, but Wade did give us a glimpse of the future in an absolute gem of a performance.  Coming off a brilliant debut, and a thorough thrashing in his sophomore start, most folks weren’t sure what to make of Big Nasty (Yes, I am coining this nickname for Mr. Davis).  They were rewarded with a CGSO.  The fastball sat at 92 while issuing 5 whiffs (10 total on 124 pitches).  He threw a ton of fastball, both in, and out of the zone, but his curve, slider, and cutter he had great control of throwing a combined 34 strikes on 44 pitches with 5 whiffs.  The video above shows just how filthy his breaking ball is.  I like his fastball, because when it’s on it has that same ride that Garza gets off the plate to lefties.  They can either leave it there and take the occasional strike or foul it off and then get fooled on the breaking ball.

via brooksbaseball.net

That speed chart is absolutely gorgeous.  I want to make babies with it.  Big Nasty’s hardest pitch came in the low 120′s while maintaining velocity throughout the game.  Granted it was his 3rd start, but he had pitched all year at Durham, so it’s not like he was completely fresh.  At the moment, he compares very much to Matty Garza, in my mind.  A little bigger, the fastball isn’t quite as good, but the bendy stuff brings women to their knees.  Wade reminds us that with the death of one season comes the hope and promise at the birth of the next.  Personally, I can’t wait to see him next year.

3) Jeff Niemann  vs. Kansas City Royals on June 3  Box Highlights Pitch F/x

The Big Nyquil barely had to break a sweat in earning his 1st CGSO of the season on a two-hitter.  He threw his fastball and slider for strikes, while dropping his curve out of the zone on his way to garnering 12 whiffs.  In his 9 innings of work, the most pitches he threw in an inning was 14 in the 5th with 4 separate innings of 9 pitches.  That is straight dominance averaging 11 pitches/inning against a Major League ballclub (OK the Royals.)  I love the following chart:

via i273.photobucket.com

I have shaded the inner-part of the plate because you can see that Niems was just pounding fastballs in there.  He threw a couple of back-door sliders, and two curves, but for the most part he was blowing it by righties on the inner 1/8 of the plate.  Speaking of the fastball, he threw 3 of his first 10 pitches over 94 MPH, before settling in to sit at 92.  Congrats on a phenomenal start, Jeff, let’s see more of these in 2010.

2) Matt Garza at Toronto on July 24th  Box Highlights Pitch F/x

Here’s a Matt Garza performance that shows why I’m not a fan of looking at R/ER as the sole indicator of a great performance.  Yes, he gave up two runs.  After retiring the first six batters, in the bottom of the 3rd, Garz gave up a lead-off single to Rios whom managed to get to 2nd on a throwing error by Longo.  Garza induced a flyout to center and then one to right, in which, Rios moved over to 3rd.  A 2-out single by Scutaro brought the run in and a double by the next batter, an on-fire Aaron Hill, led to the second run coming in.

Now think about this for a minute.  Garza gave up two singles and a double in the inning and in the other 8 he only gave up another single and a double with no walks on the entire game.  My point is that I don’t think 8 brilliant innings should be completely thrown out because of one inning where he got a little nicked.  This same thing can be applied to James Shields.  In a typical 7 inning performance from James he will have 4-5 outstanding innings, 1 clunker, and 1-2 where he has to work himself out of trouble.  Major League hitters are so good at making adjustments that virtually every pitcher will get touched here and there.  The good ones find ways to minimize the damage and then keep their pitch counts down in other innings, as Matty did throwing 13 COMBINED pitches in the 5th and 6th.

How pretty is this:

via brooksbaseball.net

From pitch 90 on, he through all but 4 fastballs while virtually linearly increasing his velocity until the end.  Garza is a stud because this is a common theme with him.  He can bring ched whenever he wants including late in the game.  On the game, he got 10 whiffs throwing mostly the fastball (72%) and the slider (16%).  If you watched the video above, then you saw that his change was a devastating weapon, despite only being thrown 6 times.  I saw two guys just frozen by it’s unexpectedness and another trying to cool off the fans with his mighty swing-and-miss.

A Longo two-run double in the top of the 10th allowed Maddon to turn the ball over to the Iceman.  Garza’s day was finished, but he still picked up the win.  I found this pretty interesting:

via i273.photobucket.com

I count 5 K’s in the upper-left hand portion of the quadrant, while there is a double, a single, a lineout and most of the other decent contact in the overlap of the 2 zones.  Not surprising that when you throw it down the middle guys are going to get wood (on it).  I really like all the contact (or K’s) that he got on the fringes of the strike zone.  Even the best stuff means nothing if you can’t control AND COMMAND it.  It looks like on this day, Matt Garza had great stuff and knew how to use it.

1)  Matt Garza vs. Boston Red Sox on April 30  Box Highlights Pitch F/x

This shall forever be known as the “Jacoby Ellsbury‘s Parents Should Never Have Met” game.  Garz faced one over the minimum due to a nifty double play, that a certain elf-like second sacker didn’t appreciate, against one of the best offenses in the Majors that was running on pure ethanol at the time.  The video shows guys whiffing, guys getting rocked to sleep, and a bunch of grown men taking half cuts and check swings, the ultimate white flag.  Matty didn’t throw a change, relying on the fastball (75% usage, 7.4% whiffs), slider (15% usage, 25% whiffs), and curveball (10%).

via i273.photobucket.com

Now I’m no artist, so the ovals aren’t exactly a bench-marked size to match with all these other graphs, but I see one pitch, YES ONE, that’s in the overlap area of this chart.  Interestingly, using the outcomes chart below, it looks like that lone slider was a strikeout.  Perhaps this is an example of game theory, in that, he hadn’t gone to that well all day, and the batter was stunned when he saw a beautiful slider nestle it’s way right in there.  Stumbling upon this way to look at pitches just today, I can’t confidently say anything broadly, but my guess would be that if you stay out of that center diamond, you’re going to find great success.  Brooks has Garza’s fastball moving right-to-left 2.69 inches and riding 11.55 inches up, compared to a normal ball.  That can help explain all those fastball in (to righties) and up in that upper-left hand quadrant.  I only see two fastballs in the zone below the 2 foot line (Pedroia’s eye-line if it helps you to visualize) with many curves out of the zone.  Though he didn’t get any whiffs, using these two starts I think you can see a pattern where Garz throws the slider for strikes and tries to get whiffs with the curve out of the zone.  This has to create a synergistic reaction where the batter sees bendy stuff and can’t form an opinion on whether it’ll be in the zone or not, just based on pitch type.

Without the shading this time, you can see that The Crane was living on the fringes of the plate for the deciding pitch of most PA’s:

via brooksbaseball.net

Much like the #2 start on the countdown, Matt had over-whelming stuff on this night, but he also used it correctly.  He won’t always sit at 92.7, touching 95 with the heater, but if Matt can throw to the corners and live on the fringes of the plate (assuming competent umpiring, always a crapshoot there) he can take that next level in 2010.  We’ve seen absolute brilliance from Matt Garza on many occasions, but his good numbers have kind of stagnated in the good range.  Looking at starts like these last two, he has all the weapons to get himself into the great level of starters.  For the team’s sake, I hope that this upcoming season is the one where he takes that step forward to become the borderline ace that we’ve only seen glimpses of in the past.

This concludes the top-30 starts of 2009.  I hope you enjoyed my labor of love.  Here are the final standings for our pitchers:

Pretty clear who our number 1 starter is, whether you agree with his performance or now, James Shields is a baller of the highest order.  In 2009 Niemann and Garza appear to be competent #2′s with Price a clear #3 starter.  Kazmir and Sonnanstine were pretty much a drag on the entire pitching staff, but luckily one’s gone and the other is already pumping iron and running steps.  The WILD CARD! here is Wade Davis.  We saw some awesome stuff, albeit in a small sample.  If he can match what Niemann or Price gave us in 09, while the other two continue to progress, we’re looking at a pretty filthy starting rotation.

As always, thanks to Baseball-reference.com, brooksbaseball.net, and MLB.com, now that we are into the worst part of the calendar year, something that I find interesting is to go on MLB.com and watch some of their videos.  Find a player you like and they will run one-after-another throughout the season.  So many games get played that it’s easy to forget about some of the better plays that were made.  It’s free-of-charge, and I’ve only seen about one advertisement per 100 videos.

Pre-Trade:

Tony Graffanino was signed as a free agent by the Rays prior to the 1999 season. Originally a 10th round pick of the Braves in 1990, the 28-year-old utility man started 17 games a piece at both second base and shortstop for the Rays in 1999 where he posted a line of .313/.364/.473 in 164 plate appearances.

Tanyon Sturtze was initially chosen in the 23rd round of the 1990 draft by Oakland. The White Sox signed the right-handed pitcher following the 1998 season where he spent all but one game in AAA. Pitching for Charlotte, Sturtze went 9-4 with a 4.05 ERA while striking out 107 and walking 41 in 104.1 innings.

Post-Trade:

Tanyon Sturtze was in the rotation for a little over two years for the Rays, making 65 starts with an ERA of 4.58, a FIP that floated in the 4.70-4.90 range, and a K.9 in the 5-5.5 range. He had a disastrous 2002 season where he earned the nickname “Ten Run Sturtze” when  he led the majors in losses (18), hits allowed, earned runs allowed, and walks allowed.  Sturtze was granted free agency following the 2002 season. Somehow, he’s still floating around, having spent most of the past few years in the minors, most recently with the Dodgers. In 2008, after being designated for assignment, he pleaded to stay with the big league club and was rewarded with a stint as a bullpen catcher through the playoffs. He was released in May of 2009 with a career FIP of 5.03.

Tony Graffanino continued his utility man ways with the White Sox until he was granted free agency after the 2003 season. During his time in Chicago he posted a line of .271/.344/.411. Graffanino has played for seven teams including Cleveland in 2009 where he somehow OPSed .341 in 24 plate appearances, and would spend most of the year in AAA. Most notably he was traded by Kansas City to Milwaukee for Jorge De La Rosa at the 2006 all-star break. Sadly for the Royals, they moved De La Rosa to the Rockies as part of a conditional deal just prior to his breakout last season.

Pre-Trade:

Formerly a second round pick of the Mets in 1990, Aaron Ledesma was a 26 year-old utility man when the Rays selected him in the 1997 expansion draft. Ledesma would start games at all four infield positions for the Rays in both 1998 and 1999. During his two season run he posted a slash line of .295/.325/.358.

Rolando Arrojo was signed as an amateur free agent in 1997 after defecting from the Cuban national team. The allegedly 29-year-old right hander was a sensations during the Rays inaugural season in which he earned 14 wins and had an ERA of 3.56. His FIP of 4.32  told us he was not quite that good.  In 1999, his FIP/ERA were more in line at 5.32/5.18. Its no fun when you know something is too good to be true.

Vinny Castilla was 32 years of age and coming off 7 consecutive seasons of .800+ OPS with the Rockies while manning the hot corner. For his career with the Rockies, which also included stints in 2004 and 2006, he posted a slash line of .294/.340/.530.

Post Trade:

Vinny Castilla was supposed to usher in the Hit Show era. Outside the infamous Colorado air, Castilla proved to be quite average. His career road splits of .257/.303/.435 might have served as a warning sign of what was to come. For those who have spent the past year cursing the Pat Burrell signing of 2009, well, all I can say is its a good thing you weren’t on the bandwagon for the Hit Show.  In just over one season, and 109 games with the Rays, Castilla put up a line of .219/.253/.316. He certainly was not helped by a .236 BABIP, but he saw his ISO drop to .088. He also only walked 4.1% of the time in 2001. After Navi’s season, its probably time to look at the correlation between BABIP and BB%. By contrast, Burrell’s OPS in 2009 was .682, or .113 higher than Castilla’s with the Rays. Burrell’s ISO also was .146, or .058 higher than Castilla’s. Finally, Burrell still managed to walk 12.2% of the time, or 8.1% more often than Castilla.

The Rays released Castilla near the beginning of 2001 and he was quickly signed by the Astros. He was far better for the Stros, posting an OPS of .812. He later had two stints with the Rockies and one each with the Braves, Nationals, and Padres. Only with Colorado did Castilla again show flashes of his former self. He retired from baseball in 2006 and is currently serving as a player-manager for a team in the Mexican League, as well as the manager of Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.

Aaron Ledesma had 40 at-bats in 32 games with the Rockies with an OPS of .554. He was granted free agency, had back surgery in 2001. and never played affiliated baseball again. Today, he is an an assistant coach for the Scranton/Wilkes Barre Yankees along with former Ray Scott Aldred.  The late PLK of DRB fame interviewed Ledesma back in 2006 for the site and that can be read  here(see the gem below from Coach Ledesma):

DRB-You performed well with the ’98 Rays, but your production slowed in ’99, as your OPS dropped .121 points. What was it like on those nights when you just couldn’t swing the bat. What is a player in a slump feeling in those times?

AL-Being in a slump was horrible for me. I was absolutely terrified of going o-fer. That’s probably why I never hit for much power. I trained myself to put the ball in play hard somewhere. If I had another chance to do it all over again, I’m coming out of my shoes. Easy to say now. And I have no clue what OPS stands for. (On Base Percentage+Slugging Percentage OBP+SLG=OPS)

Rolando Arrojo lasted 19 starts in 2000 with the Rockies (ERA 6.04) before being shipped along with Rich Croushore and Mike Landing to Boston in exchange for Jeff Frye, Brian Rose, John Wasdin, and Jeff Taglienti.

Taglienti was a minor leaguer who never made it past AA and was out of baseball in 2002. Frye played 27 games at 2B with an OPS of .838 for the Rockies before being granted free agency.  Wasdin pitched 13 innings for Colorado before being released. Rose made 12 starts for the Rockies with an ERA of 5.51 before being traded in 2001 to the Mets in exchange for Mark Leiter. Leiter was traded a week later along with Mike Dejean and Elvis Pena for Juan Acevedo, Kane Davis, and Jose Flores.

Flores was granted free agency a few months later with no time spent in the majors.  Acevedo was moved in August of 2001 for Josue Espada of the Marlins organization. No details on Espada could be found. Kane Davis pitched 68 innings of relief for the Rockies in 2001 before being traded to the Mets for Corey Brittan, who lasted just one season in AAA for the Rockies and has been out of baseball since 2002. This concluded the Vinny Castilla string for the Rockies.

1999 Trade: Joe Oliver & Humberto Cotafor Jeff Sparks (Released 2000) and Jose Guillen (Released 2001)

Pre-Trade:

Journeyman Joe Oliver was signed by the Rays to a minor league contract prior to the 1999 season and began the year at AAA Durham.

Humberto Cota was a 20-year-old catcher coming off a stellar 1998 campaign with the Princeton Rays in rookie ball where he posted a slash line of .310/.399/.580 with 15 home runs.

Jeff Sparks was a 27-year-old right handed reliever in AAA with the Pirates. Through 34 appearances in 1999 he had struck out 69 and walked 23 in 49.1 IP.

Jose Guillen was the 23-year-old everyday right fielder for the Pirates in 1997 and 1998 with a slash line of .267/.301/.406.

Post-Trade:

Jeff Sparks made 23 relief appearances over two seasons with the Rays where he flashed stuff that was tough to hit with a K/9 of 12.16/9 and a Slugging % allowed of .305. However he also had control issues with a BB/9 of 8.9/9. He was released following the 2000 season. He pitched in the in dependants through 2005, but never for an affiliated team past his time with the Rays. Per wikipedia, as of 2007 he was hawking home and garden tools at Lowes, while going to firefighter school and training with Mike Marshall.

Jose Guillen would be a part-time right fielder for the Rays through 2001 when he was released, thus ending the Oliver/Cota string. During his stint he posted a slash of .255/.317/.394. He would go on to have a richly compensated career after he discovered power in 2003 with the Reds and A’s to the tune of 31 home runs.

Guillen was traded in a 1-for-3 deal to Oakland during 2003. One of the 3 pieces? A young pitcher named Aaron Harang. A few years later  in 2005, the Angels traded away Guillen for Maicer Izturis and Juan Rivera. For his career Guillen has OPSed .764 over 13 seasons with below average defense. With nets of Izturis and Rivera, and Harang, the Rays should have done better than releasing him in 2001. One consoling fact, there is a team that had far more costly consequences involving Guillen than the Rays missed opportunity costs. The Royals have paid him $24 million over the past two seasons for one full season’s worth of . a 720 OPS.

Joe Oliver started 40 games for the Pirates in 1999 with a lowly OPS of .537. He would continue floating around the majors through 2001.

Humberto Cota was a part-time catcher for the Pirates from 2001-07 with a slash of .233/.280/.358. Cota was granted free agency after 07, and had a very nice AAA season for the Rockies in 2008 with a line of .319/.342/.493. He became a free agent again, and played in the Mexican League in 2009 with an OPS of .850. Cota kept the trade string alive for the Pirates through 2007.

Nothing unexpected on the options part. Although it will be interesting to see if they attempt to get Zaun to re-sign.

Ramirez is a 27-year-old righty from the Cincinnati organization and 39.3 career innings in the Majors. That’s a pretty small sample size to draw from, but during his time he posted a 4.6 FIP and 5.1 tRA. His home run per fly ball percentage is awfully high for a reliever (just over 11%) but those things fluctuate so much on a year-to-year basis for a reliever it’s hard to know whether it will be an issue heading forward.

His fastball is the pitch he uses the most and it sits around 90 miles per hour. He backs that up with a change-up that sits seven-to-eight clicks lower and also has a slider. Again, a small sample to work with, but he showed a good tendency to miss bats with a 76.5 Contact% (average s about 81%) and avoid walks. His strikeout totals before hitting Triple-A were ridiculous, but in 127.3 innings as a starter/reliever, his Triple-A K/9 dropped to 5.51 this year.

Interestingly, he’s thrown a little over 3,200 pitches at Triple-A since 2007 and his swinging strike rates were pretty impressive. Assuming this guy’s change is legitimate – and it appears so – this could be more than simply fooling less talented batters, but as mentioned his whiff rates with the Reds was pretty solid too. He has one option year remaining and will probably shuffle between Durham and Tampa at least a time or two throughout the season.

His middle name begins with an A. So there’s that.

Nothing seems to come easily for Andy Sonnanstine.  His fastball barely tops 87 and he’s forced to get by on mixing pitches and superb control, which is not a way to earn the benefit of the doubt from fans or scouts.  The fastball-throwing, strikeout machines are by far sexier and catch your eye easily, which is why players like Daniel Cabrera get chance after chance after chance, while players like Sonnanstine have to force their way onto the scene.  I know the term has garnered a very negative connotation among the sabremetric community, but pitchers like Andy Sonnanstine and Brian Bannister are real “scrappy” pitchers…and I don’t mean that as a bad thing in this case.

Sonnanstine slowly worked his way through the minors without ever heralding great acclaim, and he managed to crack a spot in the 2008 Rays‘ rotation as the 5^th starter.  He had a great year in 2008, posting a 3.91 FIP, and he entered the 2009 season with a spot in the Rays’ tightly crammed rotation.  However, despite the fact that he was given a spot to start the season, Sonnanstine had ample reasons to keep looking over his shoulder.  He was the Rays’ fourth starter, but with David Price and Wade Davis making their presences known in Triple-A and Jeff Niemann out of options and pitching well, he needed to pitch well to keep himself in the majors.  Call it bad luck, crumbling under the pressure, hit-ability, whatever you want to – Sonny had a bad year.

A finesse pitcher, Sonnanstine saw his BB/9 rate skyrocket this past year, going from 1.72 to 3.07.  He was unlucky (13.9% FB/HR; 58.4% LOB; .336 BABIP), but he still was far from the pitcher that we saw in 2008.  Now, with Jeff Niemann and David Price firmly entrenched in the rotation and Wade Davis poised to take over the 5^th spot, we’re left with the question: what to do with Sonny?

Going into 2010, there are four main options for the Rays: trade Sonny, put him in the rotation, leave him in the minors in case of an injury, or turn him into a reliever.  In my opinion, the first two options are highly unlikely.  Trading Sonny makes little sense at this point, since his value is at an all-time low and he would garner little in return, and putting him in the rotation would force Wade Davis back down into Triple-A, where he has little left to prove.  If given the chance in the rotation, Sonny may have a big comeback year and rebound, but with the pitching depth the Rays have and the competitiveness of the franchise, I feel like the chance of him getting a gig in the rotation to begin the year is slim to none.  That leaves us with two final options: leaving Sonny in Triple-A or putting him in the bullpen.

Both options certainly have their merits.  Having starting pitching depth is always a good thing and Sonny still has options left, so sending him down is certainly a viable option.  However, I can’t help but feel that putting Sonny in the minors is a waste of his talent for the organization.  The Rays have plenty of other starting pitchers in Triple-A that could fill in for an injured starter (Hellboy, Talbot, Hernandez), and anyway, putting Sonnanstine in the pen wouldn’t keep him from filling in an odd spot or two if the Rays had him penciled in as their long-man, which he most likely would be.

Remember what the Rays did with Howell in 2008?  This could be the same sort of process.  Let Sonnanstine start off the year as the long man in the pen and see how effective he is.  If he bombs, then you can always demote him without incurring much damage, and if he dominates, eventually promote him to higher leverage situations.  Starters typically gain miles an hour on their fastball and increase their strikeout numbers when transitioning to the pen, both of which are changes that could benefit Sonnanstine.  I’m not expecting him to be Howell v2.0 (especially since Howell had a higher K/9 total as a starter than Sonny has so far), but it may be the most efficient use of Sonnanstine’s talent within our organization at the moment.  He’s a cheap, team-controlled arm that has displayed major league caliber talent in the past, so why not use him and save ourselves money on another reliever?

One of the first orders of business to take care of during the hot stove league is squaring away  options. So far 11 options have been accepted or declined since the end of the World Series with several more looming. Around these parts the Tampa Bay Rays have three options of their own to take care of.

Two of the three options seem like slam dunks. One is an obvious pick-up and one is a simple decline. The third option, however, is 50/50 and will probably determine the course of who is our catcher next season.

The Rays hold a $1.9 million dollar option (plus performance bonuses) on left handed specialist, Brian Shouse. Overall, his 5.17 FIP was far from impressive and his -0.1 WAR made him a negative value. However, it wasn’t his fault that manager, Joe Maddon, had him face nearly as many righties (52 PA) as lefties (70 PA).  Shouse did the job expected of him in 2009, and held left handed batters to a line of .224/.246/.373. Righties continued to crush him at a .356/.442/.622 clip. Nonetheless, Shouse just didn’t pitch enough to justify picking up his nearly $2 million dollar option A left elbow strain sidelined him for 63 days, and while he made 45 appearances, he threw just 28 innings. With that being said, the $200k buyout is the likely course of action in this case.

The Rays are more likely to go with fellow side-winding lefty, Randy Choate, who was nearly as effective and will cost probably half of what Shouse will. There is always the possibility of signing former Ray (for 24 hours) and sabermetric wunderkind, R.J. Swindle on a minor league deal. The Rays could also go without a traditional lefty and turn to reverse split righties like Lance Cormier and newly acquired Jesse Chavez to serve as LOOGY’s.

The next option is just as simple; the Rays will exercise the $10 million dollar option on left fielder and franchise player, Carl Crawford. This is a no-brainer and regardless of what CC’s future holds, he will remain Rays’ property for the time being. According to fangraphs, Crawford has made $13.1 million dollars in his career with the Rays. The nice $10 million raise is well overdue considering the fact that he as given the team $104.7 million dollars worth of production during his career.

CC is easily worth the $10 million dollar tag, but with some scouts saying Desmond Jennings could give you the same production right now for the league minimum, it doesn’t look likely CC will finish his career with the Rays. Despite that fact, stranger things have happened, and both sides have expressed interest in a long term deal. Either way, the Crawford decision will be the biggest and most emotional decision in the franchise’s history.

The final option because to leader of the Zaunbie nation, Gregg Zaun. Hailed as the veteran savior to our catching woes, Zaun didn’t disappoint in the final two months of the season. Brining his veteran savvy and his reputed ball blocking ability, Zaun also swung a mighty stick in his near 100 plate apperances with the Rays. Small sample size rules apply, but Zaun hit .287/.323/.489 for the Rays. That earned him a 0.7 WAR or $3.2 million dollars in value. This means he has essentially covered his potential 2010 $2 million dollar option in production.

He is hardly the answer at catcher alone, and ZiPs has him projected for a .237/.335/.367 line in 2010. More likely, Zaun would be the left handed batter in a catcher platoon; picking up most of the at-bats against right handed batters. The problem with that is the Rays have a very similar situation with their other catcher Dioner Navarro. Navi is arbitration eligible and will make something in the neighborhood of ~$2 million dollars next season. I doubt the Rays will tie nearly $4 million dollars in two platoon players. There is also the question of Zaun playing 100-120 games behind the plate at 39. I could see the case for both sides of this option and honestly have no inclination of which way it will go. However, once the option is picked up or declined, we will have an answer to which way the Rays are intending to go.