Well, Jenny Says…We’re more talented and dare I say a little seasoned. Always a method to the Maddon- madness.

The ‘Super U’ is gonna be huge. Backups to positions, a better bullpen (fingers crossed). The options are endless.

I believe, The Rays organization as a whole has made some good decisions and are underestimated. I expect a great 2010 season for the Rays! Now that that is over…let’s talk about the Yankees.

I’m already over the Yanks!

The Yankees are Boring!

Yes, I said boring. They won the World Series 2009. That is what they were supposed to do, but it was boring. Funny thing is, no one cares except Yankees fans. They just are not a team any one actually likes.

Except most of my good friends, and half of Tampa.

Before the Rays broke out and became a team to be proud of – The days of the ‘Devil Rays’. Baseball in Tampa, seemed to be more surrounded by the Yankees and their Spring Training.

The fans would come, they want to see A-Rod at the Rack. Jeter at International mall. Watching the Grapefruit league this season, I’ve met a lot of wonderful people. Most just so happen to LOVE the Stankees! I’m already sick of hearing it.

I can’t remember a time the media coverage as a whole just dropped off the planet so fast, as it did after the Yankees win in 2009.

There are individuals on the team that are liked by some, yet as a whole, what is there really to like? If you want to go back to school and try your hand at math again and bring up stats, by all means go ahead. Once again I’ll say “Boring”.

I on the other hand watch the game for the excitement of it all. The team that wins against all odds is a far more interesting story than a team of gladiators that we all know should win. I think of it like buying a Maybach Exelero. You’d expect it to perform, and paying a nice chunk of change, that it will do everything you assumed, when you purchased it!

Perfect example – Wayne Huizenga proved that a team can be created to just win it all in 1997. They were called the Marlins. Remember them? Huizenga dodged questions about selling the team during the on-field celebration. When their season was over, they won the World Series, the team was all but dismantled. Now there is a story–way more exciting than the Yankees.

Wade Davis is on the “Verducci List” for 2010. What does that mean exactly? Well, it means he may be one of the young pitchers that gets worked too hard too early. Check this post out in its full length, it is a really interesting read, and looking back on the way pitchers should be brought up, it makes a lot of sense.  Hopefully, that means David Price should have a dominating year in 2010…

Rays have mild interest in veteran slugger

Russell Branyan is the latest free agent that the Rays have expressed a mild interest in. The Rays front office has tossed around several names this off season, including Johnny Damon, Orlando Hudson, Jim Thome & Milton Bradley, but none seem as puzzling as the addition of Branyan. The veteran Branyan is a career .234 hitter with 164 homers and 396 RBI’s. It is fair to question where he would land on the roster if the Rays sign him–they are set at first base at least through 2010 with Carlos Pena.

More thoughts on Benoit

R.J. Anderson of DRaysBay takes a deeper look at addition of relief pitcher Joaquin Benoit. I really hope this guy works out the way he has the potential too, I would much rather see him with the last spot in the bullpen over Andy Sonnanstine.

Once Pena leaves, I could see Branyan as a stop gap at first until we groom someone down on the farm, but that is about it. As a fan, I am hoping that they are not pushing for Branyan so they can dump Pena and his salary early in the year.

]]> http://www.tampabayraysfan.com/2327/daily-mashupdavis-makes-verducci-list-sites-set-on-branyan-more/feed/ 0 http://www.tampabayraysfan.com/1983/why-talbot-is-the-new-hammel/ http://www.tampabayraysfan.com/1983/why-talbot-is-the-new-hammel/#comments Sun, 24 Jan 2010 22:18:12 +0000 DRaysBay.com http://www.tampabayraysfan.com/?p=1983 A majority of focus from the Aubrey Huff trade has been centered on Ben Zobrist for the past year and a half, and rightfully so.  His hard swinging, OBP machine, super-utility man routine took baseball by storm in 2009; even going as far as getting him more than the token MVP vote (8th place!).   If Zobrist comes anywhere close to duplicating his 2009 numbers in the team-controlled seasons left on his contract then that will go down as one of the bigger trade coups in recent memory.  Getting lost in all of the Zobrist hoopla is the other player involved in that trade, Mitch Talbot.

When the deal took place it was Talbot, not the light hitting shortstop Zobrist, who was the more prized ‘get’.  Here are Talbot’s FIPs for each season in the Rays‘ minor league system:

2006(AA):  2.81

2007(AAA): 4.00

2008(AAA): 3.03

2009(AAA): 3.55

The numbers are pretty good, but in an organization that was/is as pitching rich as the Rays there was never room for him.  He wasn’t polished enough to earn a shot with the 2007 rotation, 2008 saw the additions of Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine to fill two vacancies, while David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis filled the voids in 2009.  The 2010 rotation looks to be the Rays strongest yet.  In another organization with less pitching depth Talbot would surely have been given a substantial shot in the Major Leagues by now.

With Spring Training approaching faster and faster the annual rosterbation games that we all play begin to creep up. What free agents are signed? Who gets traded? Who makes it? Who doesn’t?  In the case of Mitch Talbot, unfortunately the answer appears to be the latter.  Talbot is out of options, and will need to make the 25 man roster to avoid being put on waivers, where he would be plucked off rather quickly.  He’s not making the rotation, so we can skip that and move to the bullpen.  Since it appears the Rays will go with a four man bench that leaves them with a seven man bullpen.  Let’s take a look at the candidates:

Howell
Wheeler
Cormier
Balfour
Sonny
Chavez
Thayer
Talbot
LOOGY

The first four are virtual locks.  Cormier is arb1 eligible, so theoretically they could non-tender him, but he’s not likely to get a big raise in arb anyway (h/t Tommy).  There are some reverse split guys in that grouping, but Joe Maddon enjoys his LOOGYs, making R.J. Swindle or Brian Shouse (should he accept arbitration) prime candidates for that role.  After that you have five pitchers for two spots, and with Sonnanstine, Chavez, and Thayer having options remaining it makes Talbot look that much less attractive.  That’s without bringing into the equation the high likelihood of the Rays signing one or more free agent relievers, which they’re wont to do.

If you add all of that up, barring some major injury, the forecast for Talbot being in a Rays’ uniform next season looks grim at best.  The team was in a similar situation last off-season with Jason Hammel, and ended up trading him to Colorado where he turned in a pretty decent season.  I would imagine Talbot will have the same fate.  Where Talbot and Hammel differ is their MLB experience.  At the time Hammel was dealt he had served over a year at the Major League level; Talbot has about ten innings.  Even though they’ll have no leverage, the front office will not let an asset walk away for nothing.  They don’t have that luxury.  They’ll move him for a low to mid-level prospect who will provide more organizational depth.  Then Talbot will merely be an answer to a trivia question, the “other guy” in the Aubrey Huff trade, a feint memory to most Rays fans.  I always liked Talbot and believe he still has a future in the league somewhere; that somewhere just doesn’t appear to be here.

Sometimes it feels like Grant Balfour is the most polarizing figure in the bullpen. I know, I know. Dan Wheeler is present, but most of that angst stems from Wheeler’s pay relative to the team’s payroll, not because he’s an entirely useless pitcher – he gets righties out quite well, actually. Balfour has the tendency to either walk or strike the guy out. Simple enough, right? But last season he also ran into some poor luck in stranding runners, which lead to a bloated ERA.

Balfour has some things going for him that should endear him to most. First and foremost being that he lights up radar guns. The Rays bullpen held one of the lowest average fastball velocities last season. So even with a decreased amount of heat, Balfour was the only cat playing with gasoline instead of flint. He also brings respectable strikeout rates with those flames. Look at Mike MacDougal’s career K/9 and tell me he throws hard. It just doesn’t fit. Balfour doesn’t have that problem, but he does walk guys, which any generic announcer worth his weight in candy grams will tell you is a cardinal sin out of the bullpen.

True in some cases, but the strikeouts make Balfour’s infidelity to the zone worthwhile. J.P. Howell, whom everyone should love dearly, actually walked more on a per nine basis than Balfour, yet he avoids the scorn – and rightfully so – unlike his Australian pen mate. Balfour still missed more than his share of bats, but a 79.1% contact rate was the highest of his career. At this point, the hope is for a bounce back to his older ways, if not, he’s still a decent reliever – a 3.77 FIP this year is almost identical to his career totals – however the best reliever in a good bullpen he is not.

As for the money, don’t worry about it. $2M is more than a 50% reduction on what he was worth last season in free agent dollars. As someone in their final year of arbitration, he should be making closer to 80% of his worth.

40-Man Roster Projection (notes and explanations on the projection can be found following the roster)…

Notes on the 40-man roster projection

• Ages are as of today. Shaded players are projected to be on the 40-man roster, but not on the 25-man roster. Italicized players are currently on the 40-man roster but are not projected to be on the roster in 2010.
• The Rays now have 40 players on the 40-man roster after the recent additions of Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Torres. However, Elliot Johnson and Mitch Talbot are candidates to be traded or designated for assignment as they are out of minor league options and not likely to be on the big league roster unless somebody is injured. Gabe Gross and Dioner Navarro are both candidates to be non-tendered to traded.
• The Rays have 10 players that will be arbitration-eligible following this season. Salaries for 8 of those players are guestimations at this point based on other arbitration-eligible players in recent years that play the same position, have similar service times and comparable stats. Last year, we missed the five arbitration cases by a total of $300K and nailed 2 right on the head. Anybody you think we are way off on?
• The opening day payroll projects to be $63.0 million, but will certainly go up with free agent signings (bullpen) and any additional long-term contracts given to young players (Upton, Garza, Bartlett). Of course, there are places where the Rays can save money, if they choose to trade a player like Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena, both of whom are entering the final years of their current deals. Combined, those two players will account for about one-third of the 2010 payroll. We are including the $700K used to buy out team options. While not officially part of the payroll, it is certainly a cost that must be factored.

(1) Based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consumated and free agents are signed.
(2) Once a player is added to the 40-man roster, the team can ‘option’ the player to the minors 3 times. A team cannot be charged with using more than one option in a given season even if a player is demoted to the minors several times that year. An option is not used if a player is added to the 40-man roster midseason unless he is sent back to the minors at some point. An option is only used if a player spends more than 20 days in the minors while on the 40-man roster. A player with more than 5 years experience can refuse a minor league assignment, so we list those players as having no options.
(3) Years remaining under control of franchise before free agency eligibility. A player can become a free agent after 6 years of Major League service time.
(4) First, second and third year players will have their salaries determined by the team, but will fall close to the major league minimum which is $400K in ‘10. Minor leaguers on the 40-man for the first time make $33,750 and second-year players (or players with at least 1 day of major league experience) make twice that amount. We are not including signing bonuses or incentives.
* Players with at least 3 years since their big league debut. These players must clear optional waivers in order to be demoted to the minors even if they have options remaining.

* Executive VP Andrew Friedman said there’s no thought right now about trading All-Star LF Carl Crawford and the that the mutual goal remains a long-term deal.

“I’m not even thinking down that road right now as both sides have stated the goal is for him to be here long term,” Friedman said. “All I’ll say about it is that I’m sure he’ll be aggressive as he can in his approach, as will we, and hopefully there is an overlap. But he’s got to do what’s in his best interest and one of the difficult things for us is figuring out how much we can allocate to one player, what percentage of our overall payroll we can allocate to one player and still be able to field a competitive team around him.”

Crawford will make $10-million this season in the last year of his contract.

* 1B Carlos Pena is recovering well from the broken fingers that ended his 2009 season and should be ready at the start of spring training. C Dioner Navarro is also on schedule following early October surgery on his left elbow; OF Fernando Perez may be a little behind after late October surgery on his left shoulder but should be ready for opening day.

* There remain a number of options at 2B and RF and both positions likely will be filled with internal candidates – Ben Zobrist could split time at both spots; Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac are other possibilities at second; Gabe Kapler and Matt Joyce in right.

*  Improving the bullpen remains the top off-season priority, but it is still unlikely the Rays will acquire an established closer.

• On Jake McGee: “McGee feels he’s back to 100 percent. He said he’s throwing 95 mph, and his changeup is better than ever.”
• Andrew Friedman adds that the Rays “haven’t given up on McGee as a starter,” but does admit that moving to the bullpen is a possibility.
• Mitch Lukevics says both Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson need more seasoning but that Hellboy is further along than the Rays expected, noting that his changeup has “become a factor.”
• The Rays are having ongoing discussions with Gregg Zaun, but several other teams have expressed interest.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe on Carl Crawford: “Crawford is a big clubhouse presence, a player everyone looks up to. There may come a time when Rays ownership bites the bullet and says this is one player they need to keep and works out a long-term commitment.” [Boston Globe]
• The Rays radio duo will return intact next season. [The Heater]
• Around the Majors takes a look at the Rays off-season in the first of a two-part series. [Around the Majors]
• Around the Majors explores the possibility of trading Jason Bartlett. [Around the Majors]
• Not sure why security would let a fan bring a device composed of a bunch of random wires into the Trop, but OK. [Instructables]

Here is what James Shields has done over the past three seasons under the tutelage of Jim Hickey by season as well as a cumulative total:

All in all, a very stable set of skills over the past three seasons. In 2007, Shields succeeded despite a terrible bullpen and bad defense with a strong strikeout rate, very low walk rate, and a low opponents’ batting average. In 2008, he dropped his strikeout rate and homerun rate, stranded a few more runners, and had a strong season. In 2009, he walked a few more, reverted back to some longball issues, and opponents hit him better – particularly in the second half of the season and Shields had a disappointing 2009 for some. Despite the struggles, Shields has maintained strong ERA+ scores over the last three seasons of 117, 124, and 109 respectively. While some may argue that 2008 was his best season because of the career high in wins and best ERA, I’ll take the 2007 version of Shields all day long. If you take away the 1.2 home run rate, his 2007 skills are superior across the board to the other two seasons.

Fangraphs shows the pitch mix of Shields across the seasons and he has changed throughout the years. When he first came up, he was primarily a two pitch pitcher who relied upon getting ahead of batters to put them away with his change. He has since incorporated a better curveball and a cut fastball, but here is the mix of pitches for Shields in recent years:

I guess cutting down on your change-up usage 20% in two seasons is one way to protect from over-exposing it but the mix of pitches in 2007 was his most successful mix. Has he gained anything in his splits against righties and lefties by mixing up his pitches?

• 2007: .250/.290/.428 vs righties; .243/.280/.393 vs lefties
• 2008: .253/.291/.389 vs righties; .255/.306/.429 vs lefties
• 2009: .279/.318/.438 vs righties; .272/.314/.464 vs lefties

As he has become less and less reliant upon his change, lefties have hit him better and better both in batting average and in slugging.  I am not sure why Hickey is working with Shields to mix up his pitches like this, but certainly, the results are not terribly desirable as his opponents’ batting average has climbed each of the past three seasons and lefties are slugging 71 points higher against him now than they were just two seasons ago.

With all of this in mind, here is what his 2010 projections look like according to Bill James and Fanball’s statistical guru, Scott Wilderman:

Both see Shields moving back toward his work from 2007 to 2008 rather than a repeat of last year. James is particularly aggressive in predicting a return to a high strikeout rate and Shields stranding runners better than he ever has in the major leagues.  However, James is the more pessimistic of the two in projecting a 14-11 record for Shields in 2010 while Fanball is speculating on a 16-10 season. I think Rays fans would find these numbers quite acceptable for the guy who is likely take the ball on opening day against the Baltimore Orioles.

First, lets put things in perspective. It is very difficult to find a player, particularly a catcher, in the rule 5 draft andhave them survive the season on the 25-man roster. Earlier this week, R.J. Anderson provided a list of rule 5 catchers selected in the past decade. I added some color to this list with their level, OBP, and SLG from the season prior to each player’s selection:

Notes:

-Palmisano put up good offensive numbers at every level of the minors he played. He failed to stick with the Astros, was offered back to Brewers who declined, and then refused assignment from the Astros. He played independent baseball in 2009 with the Pensacola Pelicans. Palmisano was between a rock anda hard place buried behind catching prospects J.R. Towles with Houston and Jonathan LuCroy with Milwaukee. I have no idea how his defense plays, but his offense isn’t something to immediately discard for a catcher.

-Skeltonfailed to stick to the 25-man but a deal was worked out for the Diamondbacks to keep him. He struggled in a 239 AA plate appearances in 2009 with a slash of .182/.341/.248 despite an awesome 19.5% BB%.

-Flores was able to make the leap with the Nationals in 2007 directly from A+ ball. In 197 PA, he posted a slash of .244/.310/.361.

Now that there is an understanding of how difficult it would be for a player to stick, let’s see which players could possibly be of interest to the Rays. :

Koby Clemens Age 23 Astros

Its rare to find a player, let alone a catcher,  who has just posted a 1.000 OPS in A+ available in a Rule 5 draft. Yet that’sexactly what Clemens did for the Astros farm team in 2009 with a slash of .345/.419/.636 and 22 home runs. The glaring weakness is his defense as he allowed 20 passed balls and threw out approximately 20% of base runners in 2009. Nonetheless the bat has to be intriguing, There’s a good chance Clemens does not stick to catcher, but those offensive numbers play around the diamond. There is almost no chance he would catch for a major league club in 2009, but the Rays have two things going for them. Obviously offensive depth is not as important in the AL, and the Rays are blessed with a talented array of players who can perform at multiple positions.

Anthony Recker Age 26 Athletics

As our friends from the A’s blog recently pointed out, the A’s have a surplus of catching prospects on hand behind Kurt Suzuki. With Luke Donaldson and Landon Powell in the fold, Recker could be a player slipping through the cracks. Recker was originally an 18th round draft choice of Oakland in 2005 out of Alvernia College in Pennsylvania.  Recker has put up solid offensive numbers as he worked his way through the A’s system culminating in a AAA 2009 performance of .261/.333/.449. His glaring weakness has been his strikeout rate which has pretty consistently hovered around 30% throughout the minors. He makes the most of his swings as evidenced by a 2009 ISO of .188.

Towards the end of 2009, Dioner Navarro‘s primary role was to catch on the days when the Rays faced LHP. Offering arbitration to Navi could result in a hefty price tag for a catcher who would play 1/3 of the games. Recker has consistently posted wider splits relative to his overall numbers than is typical:

Based solely on his offensive game, it seems as though Reckerc ould be a much less costly option for Navarro’s lesser used half of the platoon. It also would not come witht he opportunity cost associated with a trade. Jeff Bennett and Elliot Johnson are both currently occupying 40-man spots and most likely have little future with the MLB club.

It is a long shot that the organization would select a catcher in the Rule 5 draft, but Recker could be the best of the lot for immediate contribution while Clemens represent a chance to steal a potential big bat at no cost.

Jason Collette of DockOfTheRays.com takes a nice look at the AL Rookie of the Year Award…

Jeff Niemann came up well short in the final voting trailing Andrew Bailey, Elvis Andrus, and Rick Porcello but it cannot be considered a disappointment

considering just how awful his season started and ended. The middle months were fantastic and he somehow gained some invisible power to eliminate the longball from his game for the first time in his career, but the big horse wore down as the season went on. His numbers started diving toward the end yet the bullpen did him no

favors blowing 3-4 wins for him when he had gutted his way through a start to qualify for the win. So, put down your Rays-colored glasses and just be appreciative of the fact Niemann finished in the top four. A’s fans can relate because their best guy did not even finish in the top five. Yes, Andrew Bailey won the award because a majority of the voters looked at his ERA like a kid stares at a shiny toy in the window and voted for him. I don’t want to knock Bailey – he had a terrific season taking over as the closer after both Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler went down and he helped guide me to two top finishes in big money fantasy leagues, but he wasn’t even the most valuable player on his own team.

The ironic thing is Brett Anderson helped set up part of Bailey’s success with his quality work. The 21 year old’s FIP (essentially ERA without the defense factor) was 3.69 – better than Gavin Floyd, John Lackey, A.J. Burnett, and Matt Garza to name a few. His 3.3 strikeout to walk ratio was 8th in the American League trailing the likes of Halladay, Greinke, Verlander, Pavano (what??), Beckett, Lester, and Baker. He also finished 10th in the American League in strikeouts, in his rookie season, with only 175 innings pitched.

A month ago, I did an interview with Jesse Spector of the NY Daily News where I was asked to pick the AL Rookie of the Year and I said Bailey as it was a prediction pick on who I thought the owners would vote for over who really should have won the award. Sue me for wanting to look right but that pretty shiny ERA was going to be too much for voters to overcome and it is a shame because the best value of the entire bunch was Anderson. This vote should have come down to the merits of Anderson’s pitching versus the merits of Elvis Andrus and how he personally reshaped the way things got done in Texas with his glove.  No way Kevin Millwood or Scott Feldman have the year they had with Michael Young still at shortstop and Chris Davis or Hank Blalock at 3rd base.