[10:30 pm] Marc Topkin is reporting that the Rays have non-tendered Gabe Gross, making him a free agent. No decision has been announced on Dioner Navarro.

Also, the Rays avoided arbitration with Randy Choate and Lance Cormier. Choate will make $700K  this season while Cormier will make $1.2 million.

These moves leave the Rays with six arbitration-eligible players including BJ Upton, Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, Kelly Shoppach, Grant Balfour and JP Howell.

In addition, the Rays re-signed Winston Abreu and Carlos Hernandez to minor league deals. Abreu made three appearances with the Rays last season. He struck out 77 in 51 innings with a 1.94 ERA at triple-A Durham. Hernandez went 7-6 with a 3.29 ERA in 21 starts for Durham.

And in the ex-Rays department, Jonny Gomes has been non-tendered by the Reds and is now a free agent.

Sometimes it feels like Grant Balfour is the most polarizing figure in the bullpen. I know, I know. Dan Wheeler is present, but most of that angst stems from Wheeler’s pay relative to the team’s payroll, not because he’s an entirely useless pitcher – he gets righties out quite well, actually. Balfour has the tendency to either walk or strike the guy out. Simple enough, right? But last season he also ran into some poor luck in stranding runners, which lead to a bloated ERA.

Balfour has some things going for him that should endear him to most. First and foremost being that he lights up radar guns. The Rays bullpen held one of the lowest average fastball velocities last season. So even with a decreased amount of heat, Balfour was the only cat playing with gasoline instead of flint. He also brings respectable strikeout rates with those flames. Look at Mike MacDougal’s career K/9 and tell me he throws hard. It just doesn’t fit. Balfour doesn’t have that problem, but he does walk guys, which any generic announcer worth his weight in candy grams will tell you is a cardinal sin out of the bullpen.

True in some cases, but the strikeouts make Balfour’s infidelity to the zone worthwhile. J.P. Howell, whom everyone should love dearly, actually walked more on a per nine basis than Balfour, yet he avoids the scorn – and rightfully so – unlike his Australian pen mate. Balfour still missed more than his share of bats, but a 79.1% contact rate was the highest of his career. At this point, the hope is for a bounce back to his older ways, if not, he’s still a decent reliever – a 3.77 FIP this year is almost identical to his career totals – however the best reliever in a good bullpen he is not.

As for the money, don’t worry about it. $2M is more than a 50% reduction on what he was worth last season in free agent dollars. As someone in their final year of arbitration, he should be making closer to 80% of his worth.

Now that we have had a night to sleep and ponder, let’s take a look at what we like about the deal and why fans should still be worried…

What to like about the deal…

SORIANO SHOULD BE BETTER THAN HOWELL: In 2008, JP Howell was one of the top 10 relief pitchers in the AL. In 2009, he was one of the worst closers in the AL. Did he just have a bad season? Or is Howell not cut out to be a closer? Even in his great 2008 season, Howell was only worth 1.5 WAR. A healthy Soriano should be worth at least 2.0 WAR and could be worth 2.5-3.0.

THE RAYS GOT THEIR CLOSER: There has long been this myth that the Rays are a team that does not believe in having a designated closer. That simply is not true. Andrew Friedman and Co. have always said they would love to have a closer, they just couldn’t afford the going rate and felt the money could be better spent elsewhere. Theo Epstein did not win a World Series in Boston until he scrapped his closer-by-committee and signed free agent Keith Foulke. And now Friedman has finally decided that if the Rays are going to take that next step, they needed to spend a little more on somebody that records the three most important outs of a game.

RAYS KEEP THEIR DRAFT PICKS: The Rays signed the second best relief pitcher available and it did not cost them their first-round pick next June. Soriano was a free agent, but accepted arbitration from the Braves because his status as a Type A free agent would have cost his new team a first-round or second-round pick and may have limited how much other teams were willing to offer. By accepting arbitration, Soriano got a raise and the Rays got to keep their top pick.

SORIANO MAKES THE ENTIRE BULLPEN BETTER:  If the Rays wanted to make an upgrade at shortstop, they would have to weigh the cost of a new shortstop against the net gain in talent between Jason Bartlett and the new shortstop. But in the bullpen it is different. While Soriano will take Howell’s role, he is not taking his job. Soriano should be a more effective closer than Howell, but the net gain in talent is from whoever would have been the 7th reliever (Jesse Chavez?) and Soriano. And that difference is huge. With Soriano on board, the rest of the bullpen moves down a slot and raises the talent level of each position.

THE RAYS ARE WILLING TO SPEND: Every indication the Rays had given in the past 6 months was that the 2010 payroll was not likely to rise over the 2009 opening day payroll of $63 million. And with so many arbitration cases and players expecting big raises, that meant the Rays were more likely to trim contracts than to add to the payroll. But the addition of Soriano brings the projected payroll close to $70 million and suggests a commitment to winning this season.

Why we should be worried about this deal…

SORIANO HAS A FRAGILE ARM:  Tommy John surgery cost him most of the 2004 and 2005 seasons. A shoulder injury landed him on the DL in 2006. And an elbow injury had him on the DL three times in 2008 and cost him most of the season. The good news is that he was healthy in 2009. Then again, he has never had consecutive healthy seasons.

RAYS WILL STILL TRY TO TRIM PAYROLL: The Rays spent $63 million on payroll last season and claimed to have borrowed from future payrolls to do so. With attendance below expectations in 2009, $7 million is lot for the Rays to spend on a relief pitcher. Are the Rays willing to go to $70 million, or does somebody else need to be traded? We like Soriano as closer, but we like it a lot less if it means the Rays have to trade Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena to make room in the budget.

The Rayshead Army has every right to be excited about this move as the Rays are a better team today than they were before the Winter Meetings started. But we need to keep in mind that Soriano is no guarantee and the off-season is still very young.

After a full day of speculation, we finally reach resolution. Jon Paul Morosi is reporting the Rays will trade Jesse Chavez for Rafael Soriano. In effect, the Rays will deal the ghost of Akinori Iwamura for Rafael Soriano, barring anything else being added to the deal.

As for Chavez, well, we barely knew ‘ya Jesse. Take care in Atlanta. He’s a decent get for Atlanta considering they held little leverage in this situation. Almost the opposite of the original deal that landed Chavez with the Rays.

Now, for Soriano.

Let’s start from the top.

Soriano will turn 30-years-old on December 19^th. He signed with the Seattle Mariners as an amateur free agent in 1996 and made his Major League debut on May 10^th, 2002. On December 7^th, 2006, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves for Horacio Ramirez. For his career, he’s pitched 332.2 innings, struck out 365, and walked 104. All told, he has a career FIP of 3.31 and xFIP of 3.65. Soriano was eligible for free agency this season, however he decided to accept arbitration rather than testing the market, and gave the Braves permission to trade him immediately afterwards.

He throws your garden variety power closer pitches. A 92-94 MPH fastball that reaches 96, a slider that sits in the low-80s, and — in the rarest of instances – a low-80s change-up. His fastball produced a 12.1% whiff rate last season while his slider sat at 16.4%. For comparison, J.P. Howell‘s curve generated 19.5% empty swings, which is to say Soriano’s stuff is filthy. Soriano is a career fly ball pitcher, which isn’t desirable, but when you pack the heat he does, pitching up in the zone without getting slammed is an acceptable way of life.

Soriano isn’t without his questions either. He has missed most of three seasons since 2004, including 2008 most recently with a mixture of injuries – some shoulder soreness, a groin strain, and a side strain. He’s also dealt with a concussion, oblique strains, and Tommy John surgery.  The exact costs in which he’ll require are unknown as well. Yes, there’s a strong chance he will repeat as a Type-A free agent next off-season, but as the Braves found out this year, that isn’t always a guarantee; especially with non-elite free agent relievers.

So how good is he?

Over his last three healthy seasons (2009-6, minus 2008) he’s posted FIP of 2.54, 4.17, and 3.43. Obviously a repeat of 2009 would be fantastic, but also unlikely. Of those, 3.43 is almost exactly in the middle and probably what most people will go off.  If you apply the 5-3-2 weighing to his last three healthy seasons FIP you get an average of 3.2. Add in another 2 for league average adjustment – note: this is seriously just a league average reliever, so this projection is actually a bit more conservative than it could be – and you get 3.39 – or basically J.P. Howell’s 2008, which is great.

League adjustment is going to be something I feel we’ll discuss a lot. Scouts think he has the stuff to succeed in baseball’s toughest division – and I would agree – and based on his previous AL seasons in the bullpen it would seem like he can step right in and post a sub-4 FIP, but those seasons were a long time ago and while they aren’t 100% irrelevant, they shouldn’t be weighed nowhere near as much as the most recent seasons. Below is a list of 2009 relievers who came from the National League and how they fared in at least 40 innings worth. This is FIP and xFIP so as to neutralize whether it was luck or worse pitching:

That’s a small sample size, but the average shift in FIP is about 1.  Soriano is a better pitcher than quite a few of those on the list, so let’s say he only feels a little bit of the change and posts a FIP around 3.7. That would be Howell’s 2009 season all over again, which is good. If Soriano pitched like that on last year’s club, he would’ve given the Rays three relief pitchers under 3.8 FIP. The Yankees had four; the Red Sox two; and the Blue Jays three.

How’s this for coincidence. The Rays have Howell, who’s entry we’ve taken to calling chill time. Well, as best as I can find, Soriano enters to a song called Fuego – Spanish for fire.

@Ken_Rosenthal: Rays, Astros the teams trying to trade for R. Soriano.

Soriano was a Type-A before accepting arbitration. That would be great and all, but the Braves had already signed a Type-A reliever of their own (Billy Wagner) and added a new set-up man (Takashi Saito). Rather than paying the bills on three expensive relievers, and since they cannot trade Saito already, the Braves are looking to move Soriano instead as the rules permit such movement after an acceptance of arbitration.

Soriano is good. Very, very good. His career xFIP is 3.65 while his career FIP is even lower at 3.31. He strands runners at an above average rate, and avoids bats very well (74.3% contact for his career). Soriano is a flyball pitcher and he will cost some change next year. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Rays can sweeten the pot by giving Atlanta enough so as to receive some financial help in return.

Olney with this:

ATL asking for solid recent for Rafael Soriano, in addition to having other team pick up $. Unclear whether sometimes bites on asking price.

I’m assuming “sometimes” is suppose to be “someone”.

With two extra picks for not signing their first- and second-round selections in this year’s draft and compensatory picks for free agents Gregg Zaun and Shouse, the Rays will have six of the first 75 or so selections in the upcoming draft.

But a few Rays tidbits from around the lobby here in Indianapolis:

* The Cubs are “confident” they’ll trade talented but troubled Milton Bradley, but if it’s going to be the Rays for Pat Burrell it’s going to take some serious negotiating since there could be up to a $15-million difference in the money they’re owed over the next two seasons.

* LHP Brian Shouse is unlikely to accept the Rays offer of arbitration by the midnight Monday deadline and likely will remain a free agent.

* The Rays have some interest in reliever Matt Lindstrom, who is likely to be traded by the Marlins, and is coming off an elbow injury, but as of late Sunday night were not close to doing anything.

Quite frankly, before now we didn’t think a good discussion forum existed for the Rays. Some were too remote and most included way too much commenter-on-commenter violence and snobby attitudes from those that had been there a while.

That all changes now with the introduction of discussion forums by MLB Trade Rumors.

This will be far and away the best place to discuss the Rays.  There won’t be any shenanigans or tomfoolery and each forum will have its own moderator that will actually moderate as opposed to moderators that claim to enforce some code of conduct but really just rail on those that don’t subscribe their sycophancy.

So head on over and give it a shot. We know you guys will represent the Rays well.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• First of all, we don’t know when this happened, but Roger Mooney has moved from the Bradenton Herald to the Tampa Tribune. Congrats to Mooney and nice pickup by the Trib. Here is Mooney’s take on the Rays and the Winter Meetings. [Tampa Tribune]
• Marc Topkin reports that Brian Shouse is unlikely to accept arbitration from the Rays. If he does decline and sign elsewhere, the Rays would have six picks before the third round in next year’s draft. [The Heater]
• We spoke with Will Carroll who told us that he was told last Wednesday that a Milton Bradley deal is “imminent,” but that he had no other details.
• Meanwhile Jon Heyman says Milton Bradley-for-Pat Burrell is “not close,” and that sounds believable. Keep in mind, just because there is only one hurdle remaining to get a deal done, it is usually the biggest hurdle and toughest to get past. [Twitter]
• Marc Topkin explains just how big that final hurdle could be. [St. Pete Times]
• Marc Topkin says the Rays don’t expect to make any big moves at this week’s winter meetings. [St. Pete Times]
• Several members of the Rays front office battled the elements last week to build a playground in one day. Afterwards, Stuart Sternberg won the wet t-shirt contest. [MLB]
• Jon Paul Morosi reports that the Rays are one of several teams that have contacted the Rangers about Nelson Cruz. That sounds nice, until we hear tomorrow what the Rangers would want. [MLB Trade Rumors]
• Meanwhile, Joe Frisaro says the Rays are interested in Marlins closer Matt Lindstrom. [Twitter]
• And Buster Olney says a Matt Lindstrom deal is “imminent.” [Twitter]
• Ted Keith writes about Evan Longoria’s effort to ramp up his off-season training by enrolling in the Athletes Performance Institute in Arizona. [SI.com]
• He has a new home, but David Chalk is still bringing joy to the masses with his 2009 All-Times Devil Rays advent calendar. [7th Inning Stache]
• We often refer to a player’s WAR and/or their WAR dollar value. Dave Cameron does an excellent job explaining exactly what that means. [Fangraphs]
• Mets Today weighs the pros and cons of adding Pat Burrell. [Mets Today]

With the move, the Rays roster stands at 39, creating space for a possible selection in the Rule 5 draft at next week’s winter meetings. They’d also need room if either free agent C Gregg Zaun or LHP Brian Shouse accept arbitration.

Assuming Shoppach is one of two catchers on the opening day roster, the question then becomes: Who will be the second? There are several options…

• Dioner Navarro (as part of a platoon) – These are the top two catchers in the organization right now, so this may seem like the obvious choice. However, both hit right-handed pitchers about as well as James Shields hits charging batters. And with about 100 games against righties, that doesn’t seem very productive.
• Dioner Navarro (as backup) – The Rays could give Shoppach 110-120 starts and let Navi get the rest. The upside is the Rays could get lucky with Shoppach posting a strong OBP versus righties. The problem here is that Shoppach would get all the starts versus lefties, leaving Navi to only play against pitchers he doesn’t fare well against. Also, Navi is arbitration-eligible and his salary will be based on being a starter the last two seasons. $2.0-2.5 million is a lot for a backup catcher on a team with a tight budget.
• Gregg Zaun (as part of a platoon) – This may be the ideal situation for the Rays as Zaun hits righties well, is solid defensively and provides leadership. However, with several teams reportedly interested, the Rays may be out of luck if another teams is willing to give Zaun more than 50-60 starts.
• Shawn Riggans (as backup) – This may be the “if all else fails” option. Like Shoppach and Navi, Riggans hits lefties better. With Shoppach on board, Joe Maddon will want to give him his rest versus righties so Riggans is not an ideal backup.
• [Insert catcher here via trade or free agency] (as part of a platoon) – If Zaun signs elsewhere, the Rays will likely set their sights elsewhere. But who? We can speculate, but knowing the Rays it will be somebody that is not on anybody’s radar.
• John Jaso or Jose Lobaton (as part of a mini-platoon) – Let’s say Shoppach gets all 60 starts versus left-handers and half of the starts versus right-handers. That would be about 110-120 starts. That leaves 40-50 starts versus righties. Jaso and Lobaton are both on the 40-man roster. Both have big league experience. Both are cheap. And both hit righties better than lefties (Lobaton: .779 career OPS in the minors vRHP, .629 vLHP; Jaso: .847 vRHP, .760 vLHP).  But is either ready to hit big league pitching and is either ready defensively? Jaso threw out only 17% of would-be base stealers in triple-A last season while Lobaton was a little better at 28% in double-A and triple-A combined.

We have to admit, the final option is the one that we are warming up to quickly. Why not trade/non-tender Navarro and let Jaso and Lobaton compete for the backup job in spring training. Best man wins. It would be Andre the Giant versus Hulk Hogan (if Andre the Giant was 6-1 and from Venezuela).  The ancillary benefit is that the Rays would save ~$2.0 million that could be better spent in the bullpen, or on a quarterback for the Florida Tuskers.