That said, on with the Tampa Bay Rays news…

Blalock FINALLY signs

So, it turns out the Tampa Bay Rays ‘interest‘ was legitimate this time. The Rays signed veteran infielder Hank Blalock.

Now, what exactly this means to the Rays is still up in the air. Many speculate Blalock was brought in to push Pat Burrell at the DH spot, while others have suggested it is as insurance for Willy Aybar, who has been injured since the start of spring training.

Either way, I could not be happier. This is a classic Andrew Friedman move–low risk, high potential pay out. While it is unknown whether or not Blalock will make the 25 man roster to start the season, Cork Gaines of RaysIndex has some good insight on the situation.

I feel the move was smart for the Rays. Blalock is only 29, and if he makes the squad, would be great insurance for Carlos Pena, who we all know may not be back next season. I feel much more comfortable with the future of first base being held down by Blalock than I do Aybar, who seems to be more valuable as a spark off the bench. Blalock could be a great 2 or 3 year guy until the Rays talent factory produces a strong first base prospect.

TV schedule posted

The Tampa Bay Rays have released their TV schedule for the 2010 season. Sure makes me wish I was still living in Florida. 155 of the teams games will be televised this year. Read the whole list here.

Hot Start could mean good things for the Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are off to a potentially record setting start to the 2010 season. As of yesterday, the Tampa Bay Rays were 5-1 in Grapefruit League play. Last time the Rays were playing this well in Spring Training was the 2008 season–the year they went to the World Series.

The passion I have seen on the field this year is a good thing. Players who struggled last season–Dioner Navarro in particular–are on fire. Up and comers Sean Rodriguez and Desmond Jennings are on a tear, and I just read a Tweet that said Jeremy Hellickson was sparkling today, striking out 4 in a row.

Things are looking good. Let’s keep it up boys.

The Tampa Bay Rays Promos are top notch

Earlier this month, TampaBayRaysFan was one of the first blogs to publish the Ray promo list for the 2010 season.

Jason Collette of DockOfTheRays.com put together a piece indicating just how strong the promo’s are this year…check it out!

Can someone PLEASE send me one of those Carlos Pena tooth brush holders?

Some important announcements…

In keeping with Major League Baseball’s anti tobacco stance, TampaBayRaysFan.com has partnered with The Safe Cig, to provide a healthier alternative to cigarettes. The Safe Cig is a revolutionary new technology that provides smokers with an effective way to cut back on tobacco intake, and eventually away from the need for nicotine too. Help support The Safe Cig, by checking out their site!

The Safe Cig will be the official sponsor of TampaBayRaysFan for the 2010 season, and a portion of all sales of The Safe Cig that are generated by TampaBayRaysFan.com will be donated to a charity to be named later.

Also–be on the lookout this weekend, as we will introduce not one, not two, but THREE new writers to the TampaBayRaysFan family!

Rodriguez is a monster!

Two games, two home runs—if power numbers were the only thing weighing in on the battle for the 25th spot on the Tampa Bay Rays roster–Sean Rodriguez would be the early favorite. Dude has been sick so far this spring, with some very impressive power numbers–hurting his cause however, was a bobbled routine ground ball in today’s game against the Orioles. Better believe that is something Joe Maddon and company are looking at. You can’t be the next multi positional sensation like Ben Zobrist if you can’t field the easy ones at your natural position.

Sports Illustrated rates Andrew Friedman…

…and the rating was number 1! Rays young GM Andrew Friedman was ranked THE number one GM by Sports Illustrated.

Ahead of Brian Cashman. Ahead of Theo Epstein.

Like I said on Twitter when talking to Cork Gaines of RaysIndex.com–that is DAMN good for a guy that doesn’t have a money tree growing in his outfield. Cashman and Epstein could not even “buy” their way to the top GM spot.

Congrats to Andrew Friedman, well done sir–to be the number one GM, when you have a budget to work with, is a very impressive deed.

And also, thanks to RaysIndex.com for helping promote TampaBayRaysFan.com

Jennings gets drilled, but appears to be fine

Super Prospect Desmond Jennings was hit by a pitch on the elbow during yesterday’s game with the Orioles–but have no fear–looks like he will be fine.

Jennings is not expected to make the 25 man roster to start the season, but should start at the Triple A Level, playing for the Durham Bulls.

Hellickson to debut Friday

Jeremy Hellickson–one of the top prospects in all of baseball–will make his professional debut this Friday as the Tampa Bay Rays face off against the New York Yankees. The baby faced 23 year old is coming with a lot of hype, and is expected to be one of the first pitchers the Rays call up to the big leagues should they suffer an injury in the bullpen or starting rotation this year.

Marc Topkin of the St Pete Times takes a look at the 10 most important people to the Rays franchise for 2010. I was surprised when I read this column because it is not focused specifically on players, but rather focused on the team as whole, players, front office an local figures inclusive.

Here is a brief snippet from the story…

6. David Price, starting pitcher

Price’s reputation has preceded him, but he’s just 24 with the potential to be a dominant lefty for a long time. After starting last season in the minors, then struggling his first two months, he settled in and showed his potential, going 7-3 with a 3.58 ERA over his final 12 starts. His first full season should be even better. Last year: 5

Be sure to read the rest of the story here.

Johnny Damon signs with an AL team that is NOT the Rays

So sure, this one is not directly related to the Tampa Bay Rays, but veteran outfielder/designated hitter Johnny Damon WAS in the teams sites for a few weeks this off season. Damon would have likely replaced, or shared time with incumbent Pat Burrell, but at this point, it doesn’t matter, as Damon will be playing in the AL Central for the Tigers. It remains a mystery as to whether or not the Rays will pursue another veteran bat this off season.

FanFest 2010 a big hit

FanFest went over without a hitch on Saturday. Fans left happy with lots of autographs, and the buzz around the team seemed to be pretty high. I even hear that front office brass Stuart Sternberg and Andrew Friedman were out mingling with the crowds, shaking hands and kissing babies. Of course I was not there to see the gala., but I hear it was a hoot. Check it out here.

Sternberg talks real issues

Principal owner Stuart Sternberg spent some time talking with Marc Topkin about the realities facing the Rays this season. While of course everyone is excited about the start of the season, and watching the team on the field, the fact of the matter is, the Rays are facing trouble filling a stadium that not many feel is adequate, and they are dealing with what seems to be an “all in” player salary for 2010. Check it out in detail here.

In 2009, the catcher slot represented a hole in the Rays line up more glaring than the sun. Unlikely 2008 All-Star Dioner Navarro took a rather nasty statistical nose dive, leaving  the Front Office little choice but to use their Z-game in acquiring 38 year-old Gregg Zaun for minor league first-baseman Rhyne Hughes. Zaun provided exactly what R.J. expected when he called for the Rays to look into Zaunover a month before the trade occurred. Zaun and Navi afforded the Rays a pair of complementary switch-hitters. Zaun fares slightly better versus right-handed pitching while Navi has a much wider gap between his splits in favor of facing southpaws.

Catchers who can hit lefties are a-dime-a-dozen as all catchers field right-handed. One of the main reason catchers are routinely criticized as poor hitters is because in 2009 70.5% of American League plate appearances came against right-handed pitching. This places left-handed hitting or good switch-hitting catchers at a premium as they have favorable platoon splits far more often than their right-handed counterparts.

Heading into the off-season, many expected the Rays to try to keep Zaun aroundfor a year while replacing Navarro. The thinking was that both catchers would cost $2-3 million and perhaps a cheaper alternative could be found for Navarro since Zaun has a more favorable match-up 29.5% of the time. Two potential roadblocks to this plan were Zaun’s increasing age, and a compensatory 2nd round pick awarded to the Rays if another team was to sign Zaun due to his Type B free agent status.

As often is the case, the Rays Front Office strikes hard, silently and when least expected. With all eyes patiently looking ahead to the Winter Meetings, Andrew Friedman sensed opportunity. The rebuilding Cleveland Indians had a surplus of catchers. The right-handed Kelly Shoppach made $1,950,000 andwas due for  a raise in arbitration. Behind Shoppach were 3 young catchers, prospects Lou Marson and Carlos Santana along with Wyatt Toregas. Shoppach would be too expensive for the Indians by the time they were to be competitive again, so he was a prime candidate to be non-tendered. Friedman sensed this and agreed to move a Player to Be Named Later for Shoppach. We now know through MLB.com that the player will either be AAA pitcher Mitch Talbot who is out of options or Joe Cruz who pitched in A- ball last year. Talbot, if healthy, should be able to handily crack the Cleveland rotation, whereas the Rays would probably been forced to pawn him off in a fire sale in Spring Training. It was a win-win as neither team had much leverage and succeeded in addressing a weakness from a position of excess strength.

Shoppach is a powerful right-hander who strikes out a lot but has decent on base-skills. His career splits trend much like Navi’s, highly successful vs. LHP with a big drop-off vs. righties. However, Shoppach fares better than Navarro from both sides of the plate. Their career platoon splits can be found below:

We often discuss how the catching spot is one of a natural platoon. Teams are forced to take up two roster spots, so why not try to make some chemistry magic by playing off their strengths? The thought of signing Gregg Zaun began to look more attractive. Shoppach was adequate enough against RHP to reduce Zaun’s workload. He could handle the 50 or so starts vs LHP and take on an additional 50-60 starts against RHP, while the elder Zaun would provide excellent ball-blocking skills and steady offense in the remaining 50-60 games vs. RHP. This option went out the door when the Brewers signed Zaun for $2.1 million giving the Rays the extra pick in next year’s draft.

At this point it was widely assumed Navarro was a dead man walking in Tampa Bay. I penned a column looking at cheap in-house and external replacements in the minors who had wide splits in favor of facing RHP. We watched the days go by at the Winter Meetings waiting for a Navarro trade for the best available compensation. As the Saturday night deadline approached, there was a growing sense that Navarro would be non-tendered if he could not be moved.  In 2009, Dioner Navarro andthe Rays had a bloody arbitration battle over a mere $400,000 with the Rays emerging victorious. Those are the types of battles that needlessly occur when you are represented by an agent who would tweet the following:

@kendallalmerico Here’s a shocker. Navarro starts, Rays win again. Talk stats all you want, but team chemistry = wins. And wins are what matters.

@kendallalmerico Rays now 5-7 with Zaunstarting, 5-2 with Navi behind the plate. I guess Joe Maddon wants October off this year.

@kendallalmericoSince acquiring 143 year old Geoff Zaun…Rays 5-6 with Zaunstarting at catcher, 4-2 with Navi starting. Hmmmm…let’s do the math

Andrew Friedman moves against the grain. Navarro had little to no leverage in negotiations given his gnatty agent, his putrid 2009, and the fact that teams had been filling voids at catcher all week. He accepted a one-year deal at the same salary as the previous season, $2.1 million. Why would Friedman do this given the apparent lack of synergies between Shoppach and Navi?

There are a few schools of thought. Conventional wisdom dictates the team needs an “experienced” backstop on the pine in the event of injury. Navarro is already familiar with the pitching staff and certainly that carries some value. While Navarro is almost certainly not as good as his 2008 slash line of .295/.349/.407, he is also not as bad as 2009′s .218/.261/.222. For a reference point his career line is .253/.312/.367. An avenue of thought is that Navarro will rebound, thereby increasing his value and becoming an attractively priced trade target down the road.

Given Shoppach and Navi’s career splits and assuming Shoppach catches about 120 games, how is the playing time best broken up using their career splits? Let’s assume there are 120 games vs RHP and 40 vs LHP.

Method A= Shoppach faces all RHP and Navarro faces all LHP

Method B= Shoppach faces 80 RHP and 40 LHP, Navi gaces 40 RHP

It seems as though overall team performance is best utilized when Navarro plays exclusively vs. RHP. Given Navi’s deep career splits, I question whether this will allow him to raise his value at all. It would be akin to platooning Gabe Gross with a better hitting lefty who also struggled vs LHP. Gross would have to face lefties nearly all the time to maximize team value and his individual offensive numbers would be awful. If you don’t do it in right field, why pay $2.1 million to do it at catcher?

I took a look at all catchers who had 150 PA in 2009 and looked at their career splits. I then broke the list into two, those with over 1000 career PA, and those with less. I also included each player’s 2009 salary and his 2009 Defensive Runs Above Average as put together by devilfingers on drivelinemechanics.com:

Catchers > 1000 Career PA

Of the 35 catchers with >1000 career plate appearances, Navi has the 4th worst OPS vs RHP. You’ll note 2 of the 3 names below him are worth a win and 1.3 wins more defensively. Navi has little value vs. RHP and is about average defensively. If the Rays are to settle for a below average hitter, a defensive stud would seem to make more sense, especially since most of the marketplace discounts defense at the catcher spot.

For the catchers with less than 1000 PAs, we have to take their splits with a larger grain of salt, though RHP is the more reliable number. Park-Adjusted AAA OPS vs RHPis included for reference point for the minor league alternatives in my previous article, with a minimum 150 PA required in a AAA season.

Catches < 1000 Career PA

There is no guarantee AAA success vs RHP will translate to the major leagues. We don’t know that a John Jaso or Jose Lobaton will be able to provide a Navarro-level of success against RHP. However with two birds in the bush, the chance of one of them landing in the hand is a bit better.

Navi would almost be better suited to scrap the switch-hitting and work solely from the right side of the plate. Barring an unexpected offensive breakthrough, Navarro will be best utilized as a career backup to a catcher who hits well against RHP. Navarro can play predominantly against lefties and make fairly valuable contributions. For a team with that makeup, $2.1 million is a pretty attractive price in this marketplace. If Navarro had been traded prior to reaching the deal, the acquiring team would almost certainly be paying closer to the $3-3.5 million being earned by the likes of John Buck, Pudge, and Jason Kendall. As a counterpart to Shoppach, the return falls short even with the discounted contract.  My hope is that Friedman can find the right place for Navi to succeed and receive something back of greater value back than he would have received with the contract uncertainty associated with the arbitration process.

Now that we have had a night to sleep and ponder, let’s take a look at what we like about the deal and why fans should still be worried…

What to like about the deal…

SORIANO SHOULD BE BETTER THAN HOWELL: In 2008, JP Howell was one of the top 10 relief pitchers in the AL. In 2009, he was one of the worst closers in the AL. Did he just have a bad season? Or is Howell not cut out to be a closer? Even in his great 2008 season, Howell was only worth 1.5 WAR. A healthy Soriano should be worth at least 2.0 WAR and could be worth 2.5-3.0.

THE RAYS GOT THEIR CLOSER: There has long been this myth that the Rays are a team that does not believe in having a designated closer. That simply is not true. Andrew Friedman and Co. have always said they would love to have a closer, they just couldn’t afford the going rate and felt the money could be better spent elsewhere. Theo Epstein did not win a World Series in Boston until he scrapped his closer-by-committee and signed free agent Keith Foulke. And now Friedman has finally decided that if the Rays are going to take that next step, they needed to spend a little more on somebody that records the three most important outs of a game.

RAYS KEEP THEIR DRAFT PICKS: The Rays signed the second best relief pitcher available and it did not cost them their first-round pick next June. Soriano was a free agent, but accepted arbitration from the Braves because his status as a Type A free agent would have cost his new team a first-round or second-round pick and may have limited how much other teams were willing to offer. By accepting arbitration, Soriano got a raise and the Rays got to keep their top pick.

SORIANO MAKES THE ENTIRE BULLPEN BETTER:  If the Rays wanted to make an upgrade at shortstop, they would have to weigh the cost of a new shortstop against the net gain in talent between Jason Bartlett and the new shortstop. But in the bullpen it is different. While Soriano will take Howell’s role, he is not taking his job. Soriano should be a more effective closer than Howell, but the net gain in talent is from whoever would have been the 7th reliever (Jesse Chavez?) and Soriano. And that difference is huge. With Soriano on board, the rest of the bullpen moves down a slot and raises the talent level of each position.

THE RAYS ARE WILLING TO SPEND: Every indication the Rays had given in the past 6 months was that the 2010 payroll was not likely to rise over the 2009 opening day payroll of $63 million. And with so many arbitration cases and players expecting big raises, that meant the Rays were more likely to trim contracts than to add to the payroll. But the addition of Soriano brings the projected payroll close to $70 million and suggests a commitment to winning this season.

Why we should be worried about this deal…

SORIANO HAS A FRAGILE ARM:  Tommy John surgery cost him most of the 2004 and 2005 seasons. A shoulder injury landed him on the DL in 2006. And an elbow injury had him on the DL three times in 2008 and cost him most of the season. The good news is that he was healthy in 2009. Then again, he has never had consecutive healthy seasons.

RAYS WILL STILL TRY TO TRIM PAYROLL: The Rays spent $63 million on payroll last season and claimed to have borrowed from future payrolls to do so. With attendance below expectations in 2009, $7 million is lot for the Rays to spend on a relief pitcher. Are the Rays willing to go to $70 million, or does somebody else need to be traded? We like Soriano as closer, but we like it a lot less if it means the Rays have to trade Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena to make room in the budget.

The Rayshead Army has every right to be excited about this move as the Rays are a better team today than they were before the Winter Meetings started. But we need to keep in mind that Soriano is no guarantee and the off-season is still very young.

But a few Rays tidbits from around the lobby here in Indianapolis:

* The Cubs are “confident” they’ll trade talented but troubled Milton Bradley, but if it’s going to be the Rays for Pat Burrell it’s going to take some serious negotiating since there could be up to a $15-million difference in the money they’re owed over the next two seasons.

* LHP Brian Shouse is unlikely to accept the Rays offer of arbitration by the midnight Monday deadline and likely will remain a free agent.

* The Rays have some interest in reliever Matt Lindstrom, who is likely to be traded by the Marlins, and is coming off an elbow injury, but as of late Sunday night were not close to doing anything.

The Winter Meetings start tomorrow. Any murmur or misunderstood comment will be amplified and some press members will be used as pawns. Disinformation is going to spread like wildfire. This makes the event more alluring as a spectator sport, but keep in mind 90% of what is talked about will never come to fruition. Now, completely ignoring that, this is the day one open thread. Ideally most of the rumors and discussion will stick to this thread until a recap thread is posted (expect that in the evening) barring something actually occurring or a rumor passing the smell test with flying colors.

This thread is going up about 20 hours early because tomorrow we’ll have a very special interview with James Click — the Rays chief of quantitative analysis and former Baseball Prospectus deity – which should provide entertainment for those willing to accept anything less than rumors in the early AM.

Moving on, let’s review the Rays off-season to date in a brief and concise manner which means links.

Transactions

Rays re-sign Gabe Kapler

Akinori Iwamura for Jesse Chavez

Player to be named later for Kelly Shoppach

R.J. Swindle signs minor league deal

Joe Bateman signs minor league deal

Gregg Zaun signs with Milwaukee

Ramon Ramirez is claimed on waivers…

And then released

Milton Bradley

The Burrell-Bradley swap

The clubhouse cancer theory

Rumors and general interest posts

Rays interested in Ivan Rodriguez?

Pirates make Reid Brignac main target?

Why Billy Wagner made no sense for the Rays

Three rules about acquiring relievers

The Rays and the win curve

Kiko Calero

Brendan Donnelly

Kelvim Escobar

Joaquin Benoit

Carl Crawford extension talk

Interviews with Rays personnel

Andrew Friedman

Matt Arnold

Chaim Bloom

Remember that you can also follow the latest Rays rumors, news, and tidbits on Twitter by adding @draysbay, @trancel, @ehahmann, or @freezorilla.

One more note: please, please, post the source of the rumor. And generally speaking, the MLBTR comments section or a random message board post won’t pass the smell test.

The next important dates for the Rays are December 10 and 12.

December 10 is the Rule 5 draft. Aneury Rodriguez is a candidate to be selected off the Rays roster by another team.

December 12 is the deadline to tender contracts to all players with less than six years of service time, including those that are arbitration eligible. Two of these players, Gabe Gross and Dioner Navarro are candidates to be non-tendered.

So don’t be surprised if the next Rays to be traded are Gross and Navi. The Rays won’t receive much in return (a mid-level prospect?), but it is better than just letting them walk as free agents.

Either way, we have probably seen the last of the Gabe-of-the-Day and The Fat Catcher eras.

DEVIL DOGS WEBTOPIA…

• From Marc Topkin: “Executive VP Andrew Friedman said there’s no thought right now about trading All-Star LF Carl Crawford and the that the mutual goal remains a long-term deal.”…well, that was carefully worded. The right offer comes along and the Rays will start thinking about it real quick. [The Heater]
• In the same piece, Marc Topkin reports that Fernando Perez is “a little behind” in his rehab from shoulder surgery but should be ready for opening day. [The Heater]
• Around the Majors takes an in-depth look at what the Kelly Shoppach trade means for the Rays, Gregg Zaun and Dioner Navarro. [Around the Majors]
• The Hardball Times has a list of several teams that could be interested in Dioner Navarro. [The Hardball Times]
• Would the Mets be interested in Dioner Navarro? [Mets Today]
• We’re not sure we would call Kelly Shoppach a “huge upgrade,” but ok. [Center of the Sports Universe]
• Fangraphs tries to figure out if Jason Bartlett’s 2009 season was a fluke. [Fangraphs]

“Navi looks forward to working with Kelly next season. You can never have too much talent behind the plate,” Almerico said via text messages. ” Hopefully the Rays can make some other constructive moves at the winter meetings that will help get the team back to the World Series.’’

The addition of Shoppach could lead to Navarro’s departure as a non-tender or through a trade, but Almerico said Navarro hopes that is not the case.

“Navi will certainly respect any decision the Rays make about his future but he truly wants to continue his career in Tampa Bay in frontof the fans he loves,” Almerico said.

Navarro is recovering from early October surgery on his left elbow but should be ready for the start of spring training with no limitations, Rays executive VP Andrew Friedman said.

* Executive VP Andrew Friedman said there’s no thought right now about trading All-Star LF Carl Crawford and the that the mutual goal remains a long-term deal.

“I’m not even thinking down that road right now as both sides have stated the goal is for him to be here long term,” Friedman said. “All I’ll say about it is that I’m sure he’ll be aggressive as he can in his approach, as will we, and hopefully there is an overlap. But he’s got to do what’s in his best interest and one of the difficult things for us is figuring out how much we can allocate to one player, what percentage of our overall payroll we can allocate to one player and still be able to field a competitive team around him.”

Crawford will make $10-million this season in the last year of his contract.

* 1B Carlos Pena is recovering well from the broken fingers that ended his 2009 season and should be ready at the start of spring training. C Dioner Navarro is also on schedule following early October surgery on his left elbow; OF Fernando Perez may be a little behind after late October surgery on his left shoulder but should be ready for opening day.

* There remain a number of options at 2B and RF and both positions likely will be filled with internal candidates – Ben Zobrist could split time at both spots; Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac are other possibilities at second; Gabe Kapler and Matt Joyce in right.

*  Improving the bullpen remains the top off-season priority, but it is still unlikely the Rays will acquire an established closer.