I am not an overly superstitious person, BUT I did spend a lot of time posting on sportsforums.net
last week about who I thought the Rays should spend their money on in signing a slugger to fill the DH roll, and my wish of having Pat Burrell join the team came true.
So that said, I guess it would not be a bad idea to talk a bit about what I think the starting rotation should look like this season, with specific regard to David Price.
After a stellar postseason, LHP David Price has proven he has what it takes to be the Rays ace in the starting rotation.
There has been much talk about what roll Price will fill for the team this year. Will he be coming out of the
bullpen? Will he be part of the starting rotation? Will he even start the year on the 25 man Major League roster?
All questions that have been asked…can be answered by looking at what this young man did in limited action last year with the team.
In the five regular season games that Price spent some time on the mound, he tossed 14 innings, struck out 12 en route to notching a 1.93 ERA. Not bad for a rookie, playing in the toughest division in all of baseball.
If you combine that with what he was able to do in the postseason, it is even more impressive.
Price appeared in five post season games, pitching 5.2 innings, striking out 8 and posting a 1.59 ERA. Price also picked up a win and a save during the Rays first post season run.
Now let’s combine those impressive numbers with some more facts about the Rays and their past.
The Rays have never had a true superstar caliber pitching in the starting five. Big names such as Hideo Nomo, Wilson Alvarez, Rolando Arrojo and Dwight Gooden have all taken their turns as starters for the organization; none of them were in their prime during their stint with the Rays.
Excitement is something the team needs. Last year, the buzz around the St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay area was amazing…everyone was suddenly a Rays fan…because they were winning. Now, coming into this season, winning will no longer be a surprise…it is to be expected. The team needs to do something exciting and edgy to help keep that buzz and atmosphere alive. Price and his superstar ability needs to be the catalyst for that.
While Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza certainly are talented pitchers, and have very bright futures with the Rays, none of them scream superstar like Price does. His swagger and confidence on the mound are impressive, and that couple with his ability to lead a team, create excitement for the fans and his overpowering stature make him a shoe in not only to break the starting rotation this year, but to potentially become the ace of a staff that may be the youngest, most talented in all of Major League Baseball.
Price showed overpowering stuff in his limited appearances with the team late last season, and he got some of the biggest outs in all of the Rays post season run.
Yes Price is young, but he has a solid fielding team behind him, and an offense that is only going to get better with the additions the team has made in the off-season.
This guy has what it takes…hopefully we will see him, ball in hand, as a member of the starting rotation for the Rays this season.
With any luck, the organization will see it this way too.
Thomas Gemkow is the editor-in-chief of TampaBayRaysFan.com. Founded in January of 2009, TampaBayRaysFan.com is a compilation of all the best of the Rays, from across the web. The website can be followed on Twitter
It is possible that the Rays will start Price in the majors, but there are good reasons to doubt they will and good reasons to agree they shouldn’t.
First, the sample size of his performance in the majors is far too small to draw any conclusions. It is 14 innings plus 5.2 in the post-season. That is a meaningless sample no matter how impressive they seem.
Only one of those appearances was as a starter, and in that case, after 4 impressive innings, he ran into trouble in the 5th inning when he allowed 2 runs and then was pulled with one out in the 6th after allowing 2 hits to start the inning (and then getting a K).
In the only other appearance of more than 1.2 innings he came into a 6-3 game (Rays losing) and went 5.1 allowing 2 more runs.
Overall he pitched just 109.2 innings in the minors, rarely going past the 6th. I don’t think the Rays want to overwork him, but if he starts they either do that or risk overusing the bullpen whenever he starts.
Also, while his minor league experience was very promising, it was not overwhelming. His K rate was good but not exceptional for a future ace and his BB rate and K rate declined at each new level. In Montgomery he gave up 7 home runs in just 57 innings and at Durham his ERA was 4.5 with 9 BBs in 18 innings and 22 hits as well.
None of this is meant to suggest he will not be a star, but it does suggest he could use more seasoning. It is clear that he does not yet have a solid off-speed pitch, and it is unlikely that he will fulfill his potential with just the fastball and slider no matter how good they are. You do not want him working on the off-speed stuff in the majors on a contender but rather in the minors where he can experiment without the pressure of having to win.
The Rays are very conservative about promoting prospects, wanting them to be as ready as possible before getting to the majors, and if they keep him at Durham to start 2009 it means their judgment is he needs the time to mature as a pitcher. Patience is the key, not rushing young talent no matter how promising.
Agreed that he could definitely need a little bit more seasoning, BUT, he would have a much better situation that most young pitchers to walk into…because the defense behind him is sound, and from the looks of things with the signing of Pat Burrell and assumed offensive improvement from B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena puts together another solid year and Carl Crawford rebounds from his worst offensive season…he would have a lot more run support than we have seen from the Rays in years past.
The cool he showed on the mound in some tense situations even a seasoned veteran may buckle under…indicate he is ready for a legit shot at being a full time starter in the bigs.
It is not a question of having a good team behind him. It is a question of whether he is ready to be a major league starter when he does not have a reliable off-speed pitch. The seasoning is not for his toughness, but for his pitching skills, and you do not want him experimenting or polishing his skills in major league games. That is what minor league games are for. Nor can you be satisfied with work done in the bullpen. The only way for a pitcher really to develop his pitches and his ability to set up hitters is in real game situations.
It is possible the Rays will decide he is ready now for the majors. I am simply saying that fans should not be disappointed or upset if they decide otherwise. Rather we should be grateful that they are being sensible about such a remarkable talent and taking every precaution to maximize his impact when he is ready to make it.