Throughout the next few weeks, I will be posting individual player pieces with a look ahead to the 2010 season. At this point in the off-season, we have a few sets of projections to speculate from, mainly those from Bill James and Sean Smith’s CHONE projections that are out in the public. I also have our own Fanball projections for the fantasy magazines that will hit the shelves next month (but order now) that include the basic stats as well as fantasy categories. For pitchers, Bill James has put his out while Smith has not yet published his pitchers who still only has batters published.
Here is what James Shields has done over the past three seasons under the tutelage of Jim Hickey by season as well as a cumulative total:
| YR | ERA | IP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | LOB | BABIP | OppBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 3.85 | 215 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 7.7 | 70% | .292 | .250 |
| 2008 | 3.56 | 215 | 8.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 72% | .292 | .255 |
| 2009 | 4.14 | 219.2 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 6.8 | 71% | .317 | .278 |
| 3yr | 3.85 | 649.2 | 9.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 71% | .301 | .262 |
All in all, a very stable set of skills over the past three seasons. In 2007, Shields succeeded despite a terrible bullpen and bad defense with a strong strikeout rate, very low walk rate, and a low opponents’ batting average. In 2008, he dropped his strikeout rate and homerun rate, stranded a few more runners, and had a strong season. In 2009, he walked a few more, reverted back to some longball issues, and opponents hit him better – particularly in the second half of the season and Shields had a disappointing 2009 for some. Despite the struggles, Shields has maintained strong ERA+ scores over the last three seasons of 117, 124, and 109 respectively. While some may argue that 2008 was his best season because of the career high in wins and best ERA, I’ll take the 2007 version of Shields all day long. If you take away the 1.2 home run rate, his 2007 skills are superior across the board to the other two seasons.
Fangraphs shows the pitch mix of Shields across the seasons and he has changed throughout the years. When he first came up, he was primarily a two pitch pitcher who relied upon getting ahead of batters to put them away with his change. He has since incorporated a better curveball and a cut fastball, but here is the mix of pitches for Shields in recent years:
| YR | FB | CH | CV | CT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 47% | 30% | 11% | 12% |
| 2008 | 45% | 26% | 10% | 19% |
| 2009 | 43% | 24% | 15% | 18% |
I guess cutting down on your change-up usage 20% in two seasons is one way to protect from over-exposing it but the mix of pitches in 2007 was his most successful mix. Has he gained anything in his splits against righties and lefties by mixing up his pitches?
- 2007: .250/.290/.428 vs righties; .243/.280/.393 vs lefties
- 2008: .253/.291/.389 vs righties; .255/.306/.429 vs lefties
- 2009: .279/.318/.438 vs righties; .272/.314/.464 vs lefties
As he has become less and less reliant upon his change, lefties have hit him better and better both in batting average and in slugging. I am not sure why Hickey is working with Shields to mix up his pitches like this, but certainly, the results are not terribly desirable as his opponents’ batting average has climbed each of the past three seasons and lefties are slugging 71 points higher against him now than they were just two seasons ago.
With all of this in mind, here is what his 2010 projections look like according to Bill James and Fanball’s statistical guru, Scott Wilderman:
| YR | ERA | IP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | LOB | BABIP | OppBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James | 3.80 | 220 | 9.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 76% | .308 | .265 |
| Fanball | 3.86 | 217 | 9.2 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 7.0 | 74% | .305 | .265 |
Both see Shields moving back toward his work from 2007 to 2008 rather than a repeat of last year. James is particularly aggressive in predicting a return to a high strikeout rate and Shields stranding runners better than he ever has in the major leagues. However, James is the more pessimistic of the two in projecting a 14-11 record for Shields in 2010 while Fanball is speculating on a 16-10 season. I think Rays fans would find these numbers quite acceptable for the guy who is likely take the ball on opening day against the Baltimore Orioles.
