RaysBaseball.com:Wild ride apparent as Rays dig in

Bill Chastain of MLB.com breaks down what the Rays need to do to make the playoffs. The math is always crazy this time of year, but this covers it very well, and makes it easy to digest.

While away from the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay has slipped in its efforts to win the American League East, given that the Yankees have expanded their lead over the third-place Rays to 10 games. So barring an impressive six-week rally, it appears the best Tampa Bay can hope for this season is to win a spot in the postseason via the AL Wild Card spot. Only that’s not the way Rays manager Joe Maddon is looking at things.

“Our goal is to win the American League East division,” Maddon said. “We’re not just looking at the Wild Card. We were playing some pretty good ball. We’ve had a couple of good games we’ve lost here — [it] does not in any way make me feel any worse or negative in that regard. I fully expect to be back here in October to play the Angels again.”

Rookie left-hander David Price echoed the boss when he added: “I think we’re fine. We’re a strong team.”

Is it feasible to think Tampa Bay still has a chance to claim the division? You do the math.

On Friday night, the Rays begin a nine-game, 10-day homestand with three-game sets against the Blue Jays, Orioles and Rangers. On the bright side, Tampa Bay plays 27 of its final 48 games at Tropicana Field, where it is 18 games over .500 with the Majors’ third-best home record at 36-18 (.667). The Rays have won 20 of their past 26 at Tropicana Field, 23 of their past 30 and 30 of their past 40. In addition, they are 12-2-1 in their past 15 series at the Trop — including five sweeps. And consider this one: Since the start of the 2008 season, Tampa Bay owns a 93-42 (.689) record at home, which ties Boston for the best in the Major Leagues over that same stretch.

Now for the reality check. Of the Rays’ remaining games, 28 (or 58 percent) are against teams with records of .500 or better, and half of their final 32 games will be against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers.

“We definitely have to win some ballgames, there’s no doubt about it,” James Shields said. “Now urgency, I don’t know. As far as making the playoffs, we’re only [a few games] back as far as the Wild Card. But we definitely have to win series and win games, there’s no doubt about it. We’ve got to start putting pressure on the other teams and showing everybody what we’re all about.”

Even the biggest Rays advocate would have to admit that winning the division is an unlikely scenario — they have just 48 remaining games to gain 10 games on the Yankees. So whether Tampa Bay wants to admit it or not, claiming the Wild Card spot appears its best avenue for reaching the postseason.

Newly acquired catcher Gregg Zaun was with the Marlins in 1997 when they rode a Wild Card berth all the way to the World Series, which they won against the Indians in seven games.

“That team underachieved all year,” Zaun said. “And I think a lot of the guys on that team, based on the roster, we expected a lot of ourselves. And as a group, we just kind of puttered along. It wasn’t until we got Craig Counsell and Darren Daulton that we kind of took off. They were spark plugs.”

Zaun sees some similarities between the 1997 Marlins and this year’s Rays.

“This team has the opportunity to be great,” Zaun said. “I know when I played against them, we’d be holding our breath because they can have an offensive explosion. And when these young pitchers get going, they get going. I watched them mature last year as players. There’s that sense of, ‘Yeah, these guys can do something special any moment.’

“But you know what? We have to just focus on every single day and take advantage of the fact we have a good team and no matter who we’re playing, it’s a must-win situation. I really believe that at this point, we got to go. We’ve got to start doing it now.”